Antony Blinken’s latest trip comes as the Israeli military has intensified its campaign in the Palestinian enclave as well as in Lebanon against Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia. File
| Photo Credit: AP

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday (October 22, 2024), the first stop of a wider Middle East tour aimed at reviving Gaza ceasefire talks and discussing the enclave’s future following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, but any breakthrough ahead of the looming U.S. election looks elusive.

The top U.S. diplomat’s latest trip — his eleventh to the region since Palestinian Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on October 7 triggering the Gaza war — comes as the Israeli military has intensified its campaign in the Palestinian enclave as well as in Lebanon against Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia.

Mr. Blinken’s planned week-long trip, which will include a stop in Jordan on Wednesday (October 23, 2024) and Doha, also comes as the region braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel. The retaliation could disrupt oil markets and risks igniting a full-blown war between the arch-enemies.

On Gaza, Mr. Blinken will focus discussions on how to end the war, plans for the enclave after the fighting ends and how to improve humanitarian assistance, said a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Last week Mr. Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote to Israeli officials demanding concrete measures to address the worsening situation in Gaza, or face potential restrictions on U.S. military aid.

The official said that in his meetings with Israel and Arab countries, Mr. Blinken will drill down on “day after” issues, particularly security, governance and reconstruction. Having detailed plans for each of these has been seen as prerequisites for achieving any lasting resolution to the conflict.

The secretary of state will also discuss with Israel and other countries how to secure a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah, and will continue Washington’s conversation with the Israelis about their expected response to Iran’s missile attack, said the official.

Breakthrough ‘hard to imagine’

Experts say Hamas and Israel remain deeply at odds and are unlikely to make significant concessions before the November 5 U.S. presidential election, which could upend U.S. policy.

“It’s very hard to imagine” that Mr. Blinken would score a breakthrough this week, said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, given that neither Hamas nor Benjamin Netanyahu have any urgency to end the war.

“Taking advantage of the moment is a fundamentally misleading sort of concept in this case because I’m not sure there is a moment,” Mr. Miller said.

The Mr. Biden administration cast the killing of Sinwar by the Israeli military last week as a possible opening that would finally pave the way to end the Gaza war. Still, Israeli Prime Minister Mr. Netanyahu says fighting will continue.

Israel is accelerating military operations to push Hezbollah away from its northern border while thrusting into Gaza’s densely packed Jabalia refugee camp in what Palestinians and U.N. agencies fear could be an attempt to seal off northern Gaza from the rest of the enclave.

Analysts say Mr. Netanyahu may prefer to wait out the end of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term, which ends in January, and take his chances with the next President, whether Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or her Republican rival Donald Trump. Mr. Netanyahu spoke to Mr. Trump about the conflict by phone on Saturday (October 19, 2024), both Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Netanyahu’s offices said.

A Gaza ceasefire proposal that the U.S. and mediators Egypt and Qatar have worked on for months is no longer feasible, Mr. Miller said, and the lack of command and control within Hamas also complicates the negotiation process.

“The proposal that would be most realistic would be if Blinken came and said ‘we’ll do an all for all’. You get all the hostages back, and the Israelis will declare a ceasefire,” Mr. Miller said, cautioning that even that formulation would have many questions that needed to be answered.

Speaking to reporters on Monday (October 21, 2024), deputy State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel insisted that U.S. officials feel “there is an opportunity to move the ball forward” on a ceasefire.

“I’m not going to speculate on any immediate end product or outcome (from the trip), but we feel that it is important to engage not just with the Israelis, but also other partners in the region,” he said.

Palestinians inspect the destruction following overnight Israeli strikes on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on May 6, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement.
| Photo Credit: AFP

As well as killing more than 34,000 people and causing catastrophic levels of hunger and injury, the seven-month war between Israel and Hamas has also caused massive material destruction in Gaza.

“The rate of damage being registered is unlike anything we have studied before. It is much faster and more extensive than anything we have mapped,” said Corey Scher, a Ph.D. candidate at the City University of New York, who has been researching satellite imagery of Gaza.

As Israel launches an offensive on Rafah, the last population centre in Gaza yet to be entered by its ground troops, AFP looks at the territory’s shattered landscape seven months into the war sparked by Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack.

Three-quarters of Gaza City destroyed

Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on the planet, where before the war 2.3 million people had been living on a 365-square-kilometre (140-square-mile) strip of land.

According to satellite analyses by Mr. Scher and Jamon Van Den Hoek, an associate professor of geography at Oregon State University, 56.9 % of Gaza buildings were damaged or destroyed as of April 21, making a total of 160,000.

“The fastest rates of destruction were in the first two to three months of the bombardment”, Mr. Scher told AFP.

In Gaza City, home to some 6,00,000 people before the war, the situation is dire: almost three-quarters (74.3%) of its buildings have been damaged or destroyed. 

Five hospitals now rubble

During the war, Gaza’s hospitals have been repeatedly attacked by Israel, which accuses Hamas of using them for military purposes, a charge the militant group denies.

In the first six weeks of the war sparked by the Hamas attack, which killed more than 1,170 people according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures, “60% of healthcare facilities… were indicated as damaged or destroyed”, Mr. Scher said.

The territory’s largest hospital, Al-Shifa in Gaza City, was targeted in two offensives by the Israeli army, the first in November, the second in March.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said the second operation reduced the hospital to an “empty shell” strewn with human remains. 

Five hospitals have been completely destroyed, according to figures compiled by AFP from the OpenStreetMap project, the Hamas health ministry and the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT). Fewer than one in three hospitals — 28% — are partially functioning, according to the UN.

Over 70% of schools damaged

The territory’s largely U.N.-run schools, where many civilians have sought refuge from the fighting, have also paid a heavy price.

As of April 25, UNICEF counted 408 schools damaged, representing at least 72.5% of its count of 563 facilities.

Of those, 53 school buildings have been completely destroyed and 274 others have been damaged by direct fire.

The U.N. estimates that two-thirds of the schools will need total or major reconstruction to be functional again.

Regarding places of worship, combined data from UNOSAT and OpenStreetMap show 61.5% of mosques have been damaged or destroyed. 

More bombed-out than Dresden

The level of destruction in northern Gaza has surpassed that of the German city of Dresden, which was firebombed by Allied forces in 1945 in one of the most controversial Allied acts of World War II.

According to a U.S. military study from 1954, quoted by the Financial Times, the bombing campaign at the end of World War II damaged 59% of Dresden’s buildings.

In late April, the head of the U.N. mine clearance programme in the Palestinian territories, Mungo Birch, said there was more rubble to clear in Gaza than in Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia more than two years ago. 

The U.N. estimated that as of the start of May, the post-war reconstruction of Gaza would cost between 30 billion and 40 billion dollars.