New Delhi:

Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and the Nationalist Congress Party offshoot led by Ajit Pawar, have apparently flipped a chunk of seats – over 70 – from their parent parties to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led ruling Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly election.

The flip underlines the impact of the Sena and NCP split – the former in 2022 and the latter a year later – on the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi’s fortunes. Sans those 70-odd seats, it cannot hope to counter a BJP that has dominated today, and is set for its best ever score in a Maharashtra election.

At 12.30 pm the BJP was leading in 124 of the Maharashtra Assembly’s 288 seats.

The MVA – decimated after claiming victory in the April-June federal election, in which it won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats – had only 53 to its name. The gap is 70-odd seats – almost exactly the number of seats the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP have won from their parent parties.

READ | NDA Set For Maharashtra Sweep, Powered By BJP’s Best-Ever Score

Its solo show aside, the BJP will still, most likely, need the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s seats to cross the majority mark of 145. And it is those two that will put its larger ally out of reach of the MVA.

Overall, the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar are on course to win 93 seats.

Where Did The 93 Come From?

Only a small chunk – around 14 – comes from seats are those contested by other parties, mostly the BJP or Congress, in 2019 and given to the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar this time.

The rest have been flipped from their parent parties, and this, potentially, is one of the areas where the Maha Vikas Aghadi lost this election.

The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP contested 81 and 59 seats in this election, and they are leading in 57 and 37 seats, respectively.

On the other side, Thackeray’s Sena contested 95 seats but is leading only in 18, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP contested 86 seats but is leading only in 13.

Of the Shinde Sena’s 57 leads, at least 40 are seats won by the undivided Sena in the 2019 election. Similarly, of Ajit Pawar’s NCP’s 37 leads, a staggering 32 were won by Sharad Pawar’s NCP.

Had the Sena and NCP not split, it would have handed the MVA those 70-odd seats.

These would not, perhaps, have been enough for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to win this election, but it would certainly have been enough to push the BJP to a much closer finish.

What Exit Polls Said

The MVA had only been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the in-power BJP-led alliance’s applecart in the final election of the year; only one of 11 exit polls studied by NDTV believed it can win. Three others were on the fence but even they tilted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party.

An average of those 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats and the MVA only 120, with smaller parties and independent candidates expected to get the remaining 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

A majority of those exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

Across the aisle, only one – Electoral Edge – expected the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

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New Delhi:

The ruling Mahayuti sailed past the majority mark – 145 – in early leads as counting began Saturday for the Maharashtra Assembly election. The alliance – fronted by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar – was ahead in 175 seats by 9.33 am. The Maha Vikas Aghadi  – the Congress and the Sena and NCP groups led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – is ahead in 81.

Within the Mahayuti, it is the BJP that is ahead; the saffron party is leading in 96 of the 149 seats it is contesting. The Shinde Sena is ahead in 49 of the 81 it is contesting and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 30 of 59.

Across the aisle in the MVA, the Congress is leading in 32 of the 101 seats it has entered, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP is ahead in 24 of 86 and the Thackeray Sena in 24 of 95.

Big Names

Outgoing Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy, Ajit Pawar, and Aaditya Thackeray, the son of ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, are among the many big names contesting this election.

Also in the spotlight is Zeeshan Siddiqui of the Ajit Pawar NCP faction; Mr Siddiqui is the son of ex-Maharashtra minister Baba Siddiqui, who was shot dead by the Lawrence Bishnoi gang last month.

Eknath Shinde faces Thackeray Sena leader Kedar Dighe – the nephew of his mentor, Anand Dighe – for Thane’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat. At 9.30 am Mr Shinde led by over 4,000 votes.

Ajit Pawar faces a Pawar vs Pawar battle against uncle Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew, Yugendra Pawar, in the family stronghold of Baramati. Mr Pawar is leading that contest, for now.

READ | Ajit Pawar Ahead Of Nephew Yugendra In Baramati Family Battle

Aaditya Thackeray is up against ex-Congress veteran Milind Deora, who jumped to the Shinde Sena faction. The two are contesting the Worli Assembly seat, where Thackeray junior is 500 votes ahead.

READ | “My Karmabhoomi“: Milind Deora On Worli Battle vs Aaditya Thackeray

Zeeshan Siddiqui – who declared he would carry on his father’s “roar” – faces Varun Sardesai, Uddhav Thackeray’s nephew, in Bandra (East). Initial trends for this seat have not yet been declared.

Voting for this election took place in a single phase on Wednesday.

The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats and the majority mark is 145.

What Exit Polls Said

The MVA had only been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the in-power BJP-led alliance’s applecart in the final election of the year; only one of 11 exit polls studied by NDTV believed it can win. Three others were on the fence but even they tilted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party.

An average of those 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats and the MVA only 120, with smaller parties and independent candidates expected to get the remaining 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

A majority of those exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti.

READ | NDA Has Edge But 3 Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly

Across the aisle, only one – Electoral Edge – expected the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

“They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he declared.

Voter Turnout

Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent – the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.

The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as ‘proof positive’ that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.

READ | 65.1% Voter Turnout Is 2nd Highest 1990s, Highest In A Decade

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

Race For Chief Minister’s Post

Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.

Claims by the Congress’ state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.

READ | Who Will Be Chief Minister? NDA, MVA Ministers Stake Claim

In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.

And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the ‘kingmaker’, although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

With input from agencies

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.

New Delhi:

Counting of votes for the Maharashtra Assembly election – a straight fight between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi – begins at 8 am, with a majority of the 11 exit polls studied by NDTV leaning heavily towards the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance.

The MVA – fronted by the Congress and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – has been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the BJP’s applecart in the final major election of the year; only one exit poll believes it can win.

Three others are on the fence, although one has tilted towards the MVA and the other the Mahayuti, which includes the Sena and NCP groups led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.

Voting for the Maharashtra Assembly’s 288 seats was held Wednesday in single phase. The majority mark is 145, and an average of the 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats.

The MVA is expected to get 120 seats and smaller parties and independent candidates 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

Exit Poll Numbers

The nine exit polls that predict victory for the Mahayuti all expect it to be a dominant performance.

In fact, of those nine Axis-My India, Peoples Pulse, Poll Diary, and Today’s Chanakya have each given the BJP-led alliance a minimum of 175 seats. Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, and Times Now-JVC also expect victory for the BJP’s coalition, with at least 150 seats.

Across the aisle, only Electoral Edge expects the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

READ | NDA Has Edge But 3 Of 11 Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly

The Dainik Bhaskar, Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, and P-Marq exit polls are on the fence, although the latter favours the Mahayuti with an upper prediction of 157 and the former the MVA with 150.

However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

“They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he declared.

Voter Turnout

Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent – the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.

The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as ‘proof positive’ that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.

READ | 65.1% Voter Turnout Is 2nd Highest 1990s, Highest In A Decade

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

Race For Chief Minister’s Post

Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.

Claims by the Congress’ state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.

READ | Who Will Be Chief Minister? NDA, MVA Ministers Stake Claim

In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.

And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the ‘kingmaker’, although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

With input from agencies

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.

New Delhi:

Political parties and leaders wait with bated breath for the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly poll results today. Officials said all preparations, including security arrangements, have been completed for the counting process which begins at 8 am.

While 93 counting centres have been set up across 90 assembly constituencies in 22 districts of Haryana, heavy security arrangements have been put in place at all 20 counting centres and district headquarters across Jammu and Kashmir for the vote count in Jammu and Kashmir. The election results in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana will come days after the exit polls predicted a comeback for the Congress in the heartland state and a hung house in the union territory.

Haryana

The elections in Haryana are the first major direct contest between the BJP and the Congress following the Lok Sabha polls, and the result here would be used by the winner to build a narrative in their favour in other states where polls are due over the next few months.

The key parties in the fray are the BJP, the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, INLD-BSP and the JJP-Azad Samaj Party. However, most seats are likely to see a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress.

A total of 1,031 candidates, including 464 Independents and 101 women, are in the fray on Haryana’s 90 constituencies which voted in a single phase on October 5.

Prominent among those in the fray are Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD’s Abhay Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP’s Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP’s Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt), Capt Abhimanyu (Narnaund), O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP’s Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat) and Congress’ Vinesh Phogat (Julana).

A few rebels from both Congress and BJP have also entered the contest.

In 2019, the BJP formed the government with the support of JJP while most Independents also extended support. However, JJP’s post-poll tie-up with the BJP ended after the saffron party replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as chief minister in March this year.

Jammu And Kashmir

The counting of votes in Jammu and Kashmir will be special as the union territory will get its first elected government since 2019 when Article 370 was abrogated.

However, on the eve of the results, Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha’s power to nominate five members to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly was at the centre of a political and legal debate, with the Congress and regional parties National Conference and PDP on opposing any such move during government formation.

The Congress, its ally National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have also threatened to approach the Supreme Court.

In the mega battle of alliances, the addition of the five nominated members would take the House strength to 95, and the majority mark to 48. These members, who could be potentially advantageous to the BJP, will have the same powers and voting rights as other MLAs.

Meanwhile, top leaders of the Congress-NC alliance, the BJP and the PDP have expressed confidence in forming the next government in the union territory.

While the Congress and the National Conference, who formed a pre-poll alliance, claimed they would cross the magical figure of 46 in the 90-member House on their own, the BJP was relying on independent candidates and the PDP said no secular government was possible in Jammu and Kashmir without its support.

Meanwhile, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti has asserted that the next government in Jammu and Kashmir will be secular and not without her party’s support.

The first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir – to decide the fate of 873 candidates – since 2014 was held over three phases with 24 seats going to polls in the first phase on September 18. The second phase of polling was held on September 18 in which 26 seats went to polls while the polling for the remaining 40 seats was held on October 1.