Damascus:

In a seismic moment for the Middle East, Islamist rebels in Syria announced President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster on Sunday after seizing control of Damascus, forcing him to flee and ending his family’s decades of rule after more than 13 years of civil war. The fall of Bashar al-Assad came as a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the heart of the region, key allies who propped up the President during critical periods in the conflict.

The end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule in Syria is set to reshape the power balance in the region, with regional and global forces rising to fill the power vacuum left behind by the dramatic regime change. While the Western and Arab states, along with Israel, would try to curtail Iran’s influence in Syria, it is unlikely for them to support a radical Islamist regime to replace Assad, according to a report by CNN.

For Iran the fall of Syria could shatter its so-called Axis of Resistance, comprising allied states and militia.

What Led To Asaad’s Fall?

Rebels reportedly were encouraged to make an advance for Aleppo last week after Israel debilitated Hezbollah and weakened Iran’s footprint in the region. “Due to the Lebanese war and decrease in Hezbollah forces, (Assad’s) regime has less support,” Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition leader representing anti-Assad groups told news agency Reuters in an interview. 

He added that Iran-backed militias also have fewer resources, and Russia is providing less air cover to Assad’s forces due to its “Ukraine problem”. 

What’s At Stake?

Iran

For years, Syria was used by Iran to expand its regional influence through proxy groups stationed in the majorly Sunni nation. Tehran, along with its proxy Hezbollah, have helped the Syrian government forces regain lost territory.  The Islamic Republic also sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s military, which proved instrumental in keeping the President in Power.  

However, since the beginning of the Middle Eastern conflict in October last year after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its attack on Israel, Hezbollah pulled its forces out of Syria to focus on its war with Israel. Iran has been reportedly using supply routes in Syria to transfer weapons to its proxies fighting Israel. The fall of Aleppo and potentially other cities bordering Lebanon could disrupt those routes, placing Iran in a difficult position. Losing Syria would be “a huge blow” for Iran, according to experts. 

“The investment Iranians have made in Syria is very significant, it’s an important land bridge to Lebanon, but also the alliance the Iranians have with the Assad regime has lasted across the Islamic Republic’s history,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington DC-based Quincy Institute told CNN. 

As per the report, Iran would want to use its proxies in the region as leverage in potential talks with incoming US President Donald Trump’s administration.

“If Iran loses too much of their position in the region, will they be too weak to negotiate? But if they fight back to try and retain as much of that position as possible, do they risk escalating the war to the point where diplomacy may no longer be possible?” Mr Parsi said. 

Lebanon

As per experts, the events in Syria are bound to impact Lebanon, where a truce deal between Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah and Israel is hanging by a thread. Hezbollah was a crucial player in keeping the Asaad regime afloat, but it has been weakened by the war with Israel. 

In case the Syrian insurgents manage to reach the Lebanese border, Hezbollah’s key logistics and supply route from Iran– which passes through Syria and Iraq– could be cut off, confining Tehran’s proxy in Lebanon. 

“One of the causes of what is happening today in Syria is the control of the Syrian-Lebanese borders to prevent the passage of strategic weapons into Lebanon,” Euronews quoted Antoine Habchi, Lebanese MP from the Bekka Valley, as saying. 

“Turkey has tried to make sure that the Lebanese borders are not a route for the transfer of strategic weapons through Syria. Even al-Assad doesn’t control passage through his own territory here, which is controlled by other factions and international forces, and notably Iran,” Mr Habchi added. 

Turkey

Turkey had been seeking to increase its leverage with President Assad to boost its standing in the region and allow it to keep closer control of Kurdish separatists, located along the Turkish-Syria border, to create a buffer zone. Ankara had represented the rebels in negotiations with Russia in the past decade, which eventually led to a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and Opposition forces in 2020.

Despite its support for opposition forces, Turkey has not ruled out a rapprochement with Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long opposed Kurdish nationalism. He has time and again said that his ultimate goal is to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish far-left militant and political group based in Turkey and Iraq that has fought the Turkish state for more than three decades.

Another goal for Ankara is to reportedly maintain control over oil-rich Syrian sanctuaries in semi-autonomous northern areas of the country. 

Israel

The imbalance in power in Syria has also caught Israel in a difficult position. While President Assad viewed Israel as an enemy, he did not pose a direct threat to Tel Aviv and opted to not respond to the regular Israeli strikes in Syria over the past year. 

However, Asaad’s regime allowed its territory to be used by Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the fall of Mr Asaad did not come as a relief to Israel as the group leading the rebellion in Syria is Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) whose leader Abu Muhammad Al Jolani is a former al Qaeda fighter with an Islamist ideology that opposes Israel.

“Israel is in between Iran, its proxies and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, told CNN. 

“None of the choices are good as far as Israel is concerned but for the time being Iran and its proxies are weakened, which is good,” he said

The newly revived conflict has allowed Tel Aviv to resume strikes on targets in Syrian territory. Suspected Israeli airstrikes hit Mazzeh district of Damascus on Sunday, Reuters reported. 

As per the report, jets believed to be Israeli also bombed the Khalkhala air base in southern Syria which was evacuated by the Syrian army overnight. The regional security sources also told the agency that at least six strikes hit the main air base in the north of the city of Suweida which has a large stockpile of rockets and missiles left by Syrian troops.

The attack appeared aimed at preventing these weapons from falling into the hands of radical groups, one source told Reuters.

Moscow:

The five decades of Baath rule in Syria ended on Sunday as Islamist-led rebels declared that they had taken Damascus, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing. The lightning offensive left global stakeholders to reckon with the geopolitical impact of Syria’s fall on ongoing conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war.

After President Assad’s alleged departure, Ukraine said the collapse of Russia’s ally Syria in the face of an assault from rebel groups shows Moscow cannot fight on two fronts. “We can see that Russia cannot fight on two fronts — this is clear from the events in Syria,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters while reiterating denials that Kyiv was involved in the fighting there.

Tykhyi was responding to a question about accusations from Iran, another ally of Assad, that Ukraine was supporting what Tehran called terrorist groups. “Ukraine categorically and decisively rejects any accusations … about our supposed involvement in the deteriorating security situation in Syria,” the spokesperson said.

“Russia’s significant losses in Ukraine have led Moscow to withdraw the majority of its troops and equipment from Syria, leaving its ally … without the necessary support,” Tykhyi said.

Fall Of Syria

At the peak of the conflict in Syria nearly a decade ago, Aleppo was at the frontlines of the war between government-controlled and rebel forces. However, with the help of Russian airpower and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, President Bashar al-Assad was able to regain control over the entire Aleppo by the end of 2016. Since then, conflict in Syria has been majorly static with the rebels largely confined to the Idlib governate, adjacent to the Aleppo governate.

However, after years locked behind frozen frontlines, Syrian rebels have burst forth to mount the swiftest battlefield advance by either side since a rebellion against President Assad descended into civil war 13 years ago.

Mr Assad, who had crushed all forms of dissent, flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination earlier on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

“After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny and (forced) displacement… we announce today the end of this dark period and the start of a new era for Syria,” the rebel factions said on Telegram.

But the Syrian army later said it was continuing operations against “terrorist groups” in the key cities of Hama and Homs and in Deraa countryside.

The pace of events in Syria has stunned Arab capitals and raised fears of a new wave of regional instability. Clearly, the armed opposition forces took advantage of the change in the power balance caused by nearby wars– in Ukraine and in Lebanon and the Middle East.

Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon has done significant damage to Mr Asaad’s ally Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah. At the same time, Russia, another stakeholder in Syria, is distracted by its fight in Ukraine making it harder to defend the Assad regime. 

Russia’s Stake In Syria

The lightning advance of rebels in Syria is threatening one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proudest achievements, his 2015 military intervention to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The end of Mr Asaad’s control in Syria risks not just Russia’s prestige, but its coveted military foothold in the eastern Mediterranean region– the naval base of Tartus and, further north, the Hmeimim Air Base, both with 49-year-leases received after Russia’s regime-saving intervention, according to a report by The Washington Post. 

In addition to using these bases to protect Mr Assad’s fragile regime, Moscow has used them to challenge American supremacy by projecting its military power in the eastern Mediterranean and claiming the role of a world power with vital regional interests. 

Russia, however, currently has its hands full with its war on Ukraine. As per an estimate by Britain’s Ministry of Defense, November was the costliest month of the war so far for Moscow’s forces, with an average of more than 1,500 killed or wounded a day. Russia has been facing a Ukrainian incursion on its own soil since August that it is struggling to expel, now with the help of North Korean soldiers.

Now, amid the reports of the fall of Syria, Russia is at risk of losing control over the Hmeimim and Tartus bases. 

How Could Fall Of Syria Impact Russia’s War In Ukraine?

According to a report by The Kyiv Independent, Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute said even during the war on Ukraine, Moscow never scaled its military presence back down. However, the quality of Russia’s officer corps in Syria had declined. 

“Russia retains exactly the same troop levels. They’ve conducted the same number of air sorties over Syria with the same geographical breadth that they did prior to the war in Ukraine,” he said, speaking on the Lawfare podcast.

What has changed, however, is that Russia can no longer count on the Wagner Group, which has played a significant role in safeguarding the Kremlin’s interests in Syria in the past. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia cannot send serious reinforcements to its military contingent in the Middle Eastern country either, according to a report by The Interpreter. 

Following its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has lost several allies from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). The end of Mr Asaad’s regime could mean Russia loses Syria as well, forcing the Kremlin to eventually shut down its Khmeimim Air Base in the Latakia area, and the naval facility in Tartus.

In the last two years of war, Moscow has redeployed weaponry from Syria to Ukraine, including Pantsir missile systems. Exposing its military and political weakness in Syria could undermine Russia’s leverage in any potential negotiations surrounding Ukraine.

The fall of Aleppo has exposed the Kremlin to the risk of military overreach and has put its alliance with Iran under stress because of its competing military objectives in the country, according to a report by Euro News. 

Russia is thus keen on encouraging dialogue between Ankara and Damascus and has deployed diplomatic efforts to open trilateral negotiations.