Antony Blinken’s latest trip comes as the Israeli military has intensified its campaign in the Palestinian enclave as well as in Lebanon against Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia. File
| Photo Credit: AP

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday (October 22, 2024), the first stop of a wider Middle East tour aimed at reviving Gaza ceasefire talks and discussing the enclave’s future following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, but any breakthrough ahead of the looming U.S. election looks elusive.

The top U.S. diplomat’s latest trip — his eleventh to the region since Palestinian Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on October 7 triggering the Gaza war — comes as the Israeli military has intensified its campaign in the Palestinian enclave as well as in Lebanon against Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia.

Mr. Blinken’s planned week-long trip, which will include a stop in Jordan on Wednesday (October 23, 2024) and Doha, also comes as the region braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel. The retaliation could disrupt oil markets and risks igniting a full-blown war between the arch-enemies.

On Gaza, Mr. Blinken will focus discussions on how to end the war, plans for the enclave after the fighting ends and how to improve humanitarian assistance, said a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Last week Mr. Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote to Israeli officials demanding concrete measures to address the worsening situation in Gaza, or face potential restrictions on U.S. military aid.

The official said that in his meetings with Israel and Arab countries, Mr. Blinken will drill down on “day after” issues, particularly security, governance and reconstruction. Having detailed plans for each of these has been seen as prerequisites for achieving any lasting resolution to the conflict.

The secretary of state will also discuss with Israel and other countries how to secure a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah, and will continue Washington’s conversation with the Israelis about their expected response to Iran’s missile attack, said the official.

Breakthrough ‘hard to imagine’

Experts say Hamas and Israel remain deeply at odds and are unlikely to make significant concessions before the November 5 U.S. presidential election, which could upend U.S. policy.

“It’s very hard to imagine” that Mr. Blinken would score a breakthrough this week, said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, given that neither Hamas nor Benjamin Netanyahu have any urgency to end the war.

“Taking advantage of the moment is a fundamentally misleading sort of concept in this case because I’m not sure there is a moment,” Mr. Miller said.

The Mr. Biden administration cast the killing of Sinwar by the Israeli military last week as a possible opening that would finally pave the way to end the Gaza war. Still, Israeli Prime Minister Mr. Netanyahu says fighting will continue.

Israel is accelerating military operations to push Hezbollah away from its northern border while thrusting into Gaza’s densely packed Jabalia refugee camp in what Palestinians and U.N. agencies fear could be an attempt to seal off northern Gaza from the rest of the enclave.

Analysts say Mr. Netanyahu may prefer to wait out the end of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term, which ends in January, and take his chances with the next President, whether Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or her Republican rival Donald Trump. Mr. Netanyahu spoke to Mr. Trump about the conflict by phone on Saturday (October 19, 2024), both Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Netanyahu’s offices said.

A Gaza ceasefire proposal that the U.S. and mediators Egypt and Qatar have worked on for months is no longer feasible, Mr. Miller said, and the lack of command and control within Hamas also complicates the negotiation process.

“The proposal that would be most realistic would be if Blinken came and said ‘we’ll do an all for all’. You get all the hostages back, and the Israelis will declare a ceasefire,” Mr. Miller said, cautioning that even that formulation would have many questions that needed to be answered.

Speaking to reporters on Monday (October 21, 2024), deputy State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel insisted that U.S. officials feel “there is an opportunity to move the ball forward” on a ceasefire.

“I’m not going to speculate on any immediate end product or outcome (from the trip), but we feel that it is important to engage not just with the Israelis, but also other partners in the region,” he said.

U.S. and Arab mediators say they are closing in on a deal to halt the war in Gaza and free hostages captured by Hamas in its October 7 attack, but the talks have dragged on for months, with several moments of false hope.

The negotiations gained new urgency when Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah vowed to avenge the targeted killing of two top militants, attributed to Israel, raising fears of a far wider and more devastating war.

U.S. and Israeli officials expressed cautious optimism after two days of talks in Qatar last week, in which the mediators put forth a bridging proposal. But Hamas has been less upbeat, saying the latest proposal departs from previous iterations that it had largely accepted.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is back in the region and set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday (August 19, 2024). Israel sent a delegation to Cairo on Sunday (August 18, 2024), and the mediators are expected to hold another round of high-level talks with Israel in Egypt later this week.

Here’s where things stand:

A cease-fire would halt the deadliest war ever fought between Israelis and Palestinians, a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.

Israel’s offensive has killed over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, who do not say how many were militants. The vast majority of the population has been displaced, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands of people are packed into squalid tent camps, the health sector has largely collapsed and entire neighborhoods have been obliterated.

The Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7 killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw militants abduct around 250 hostages. Some 110 hostages are still in Gaza, with Israeli authorities saying around a third are dead. Over 100 hostages were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah has launched drones and rockets into Israel on a near-daily basis since the start of the war, and Israel has responded with airstrikes and artillery. The violence has escalated, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on both sides of the border.

Hezbollah has vowed an even more severe attack — without saying when or how — in response to the killing last month of Fouad Shukur, one of its top commanders, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

Other Iran-backed groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen have attacked Israeli, U.S. and international targets in solidarity with the Palestinians. Iran and Israel traded fire directly in April, and many fear a repeat if Iran makes good on its threat to avenge the killing of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an explosion in Tehran that was blamed on Israel.

Hezbollah has said it would halt its operations along the border if there is calm in Gaza. A cease-fire deal might also persuade both Hezbollah and Iran to refrain from retaliatory strikes on Israel — if only temporarily — to avoid being seen as spoilers.

The two sides have been working off an evolving proposal for a three-phase process in which Hamas would free all the hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting cease-fire.

President Joe Biden came out in favor of the proposal in a May 31 speech and the U.N. Security Council approved it shortly thereafter. But since then, Hamas has proposed “amendments” and Israel has asked for “clarifications,” with each side accusing the other of making new demands it cannot accept.

Hamas wants assurances that Israel will not resume the war after the first batch of hostages — around 30 of the most vulnerable — are released. Israel wants to ensure negotiations do not drag on indefinitely over the second phase, in which the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, are to be freed.

Netanyahu has also demanded in recent weeks that Israel maintain a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling and along a line bisecting the territory so it can search Palestinians returning to their homes in the north and make sure militants don’t slip in.

Israel denies the demands are new, but there was no reference to either in Biden’s speech or the U.N. resolution, which spoke of a full withdrawal. Other lingering issues include which Palestinian prisoners will be released and whether they will be sent into exile.

Any deal would have to be accepted by Mr. Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, who helped mastermind the October 7 attack and became Hamas’ overall leader after Haniyeh was killed.

Mr. Netanyahu faces intense pressure from families of the hostages and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home. But far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much, forcing early elections that could drive him from power.

Mr. Sinwar, meanwhile, is hiding in Gaza, likely deep inside Hamas’ vast network of tunnels, and has stuck to a hard line throughout the talks. He also tops Israel’s most-wanted list, raising questions about what happens if he is killed.

In the past it has taken several days for Hamas’ negotiators to send proposals to Sinwar and receive his feedback. That means that even when the work of hammering out the latest proposal is completed, it would likely take a week or more for Hamas to formally respond to it.

Palestinians in Gaza say they are exhausted and desperate for a cease-fire. When Hamas accepted an earlier proposal in May, spontaneous celebrations erupted — but those hopes were soon dashed.

Aid groups have called for a cease-fire since the start of the war, saying it’s the only way to ensure desperately needed food and humanitarian aid reaches Gaza. Experts have warned of famine and the outbreak of diseases like polio if the war drags on. Even if the fighting ends tomorrow, the U.N. has said it would take more than a decade and tens of billions of dollars to rebuild Gaza.

In Israel, where many are still deeply traumatized by the October 7 attack, there is widespread support for the war and little sympathy for the Palestinians.

But the plight of the hostages has galvanized mass protests calling for a deal to bring them home and for the end of Netanyahu’s government, which many blame for the security and intelligence failures that allowed the attack to happen.

Israeli strikes across Gaza killed 19 people overnight, including a woman and her six children.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Israeli strikes across Gaza killed 19 people overnight, including a woman and her six children, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to the region on Sunday (August 18, 2024) to try to seal a cease-fire deal after months of contentious negotiations.

The U.S. and fellow mediators Egypt and Qatar appeared to be closing in on a deal after two days of talks in Doha, with American and Israeli officials expressing cautious optimism. But Hamas has signaled resistance to what it says are new demands by Israel, and the long-running talks have repeatedly stalled.

The evolving proposal calls for a three-phase process in which Hamas would release all hostages abducted during its October 7 attack, which triggered the deadliest war ever fought between Israelis and Palestinians. In exchange, Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza and release Palestinian prisoners.

The mediators hope to end a war that has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, displaced the vast majority of the territory’s 2.3 million residents and caused a humanitarian catastrophe. Experts have warned of famine and the outbreak of diseases like polio.

Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in the October 7 attack and abducted around 250. Of those, some 110 are still believed to be inside Gaza, with Israeli authorities saying around a third are deceased. More than 100 hostages were released in November during a weeklong cease-fire.

The latest Israeli bombardment included a strike early Sunday (August 18, 2024) on a home in the central town of Deir al-Balah that killed a woman and her six children, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital.

Mohammed Awad Khatab, the children’s grandfather, said his daughter, a school teacher, was with her husband and their six children when their house was struck. He said the children ranged in age from 18 months to 15 years, and that four of them were quadruplets. He said the father was hospitalized after the strike.

“The six children have become body parts. They were placed in a single bag,” he told reporters outside the hospital. “What did they do? Did they kill any of the Jews?… Will this provide security to Israel?”

A strike in the northern town of Jabaliya hit two apartments in a residential building, killing two men, a woman and her daughter, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Another strike in central Gaza killed four people, according to the Awda Hospital. Late Saturday (August 17, 2024), a strike near the southern city of Khan Younis killed four people from the same family, including two women, according to Nasser Hospital.

Hamas has cast doubt on whether an agreement is near, saying the latest proposal diverged significantly from a previous iteration they had accepted in principle. Hamas has rejected Israel’s demands for a lasting military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border and a line bisecting Gaza where Israeli forces would search Palestinians returning to their homes. Israel says both are needed to prevent militants from rearming and returning to the north.

Israel showed flexibility on retreating from the border corridor, and a meeting between Egyptian and Israeli military officials was scheduled for next week to agree on a withdrawal mechanism, according to two Egyptian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the private negotiations.

Mr. Blinken is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister to talk about Gaza ceasefire
| Photo Credit: Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to arrive in Israel on Sunday (August 18, 2024) as part of Washington’s intensifying diplomatic push to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that will end the 10-month-old war between Israel and Hamas.

The top U.S. diplomat’s tenth trip to the region since the war began in October,2024 comes days after the United States put forward bridging proposals that it and mediators Qatar and Egypt believe would close gaps between the warring parties.

U.S. officials cite fresh optimism to bring the deal over the finish line but also caution that there is still work to be done.

“What we’ve done is taken the gaps that remain and have bridged those in a way that we think basically is a deal that is now ready to close and implement and move forward,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters on Friday.

In Israel, Mr. Blinken is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister and other senior officials.

The negotiations are taking place in the shadow of a feared regional escalation. Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Washington has repeatedly warned Iran not to go ahead with any retaliatory action against Israel. The U.S. official said such an act could have “cataclysmic” consequences, particularly for Iran.

Foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy in a joint statement threw their support behind the ongoing ceasefire talks, urging all sides to avoid any “escalatory action.”

Talks on how to implement the deal are expected to continue early next week, before senior officials reconvene in Cairo, with the aim to conclude the deal later in the week in Cairo.

Israel’s negotiating team on Saturday (August 17, 2024) expressed “cautious optimism” on the possibility of advancing a deal, according to a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.

Hamas spokesman Jihad Taha told Al Jazeera TV on Saturday (August 17, 2024) that Israel had added conditions in the ceasefire talks and accused Mr. Netanyahu of using them to hinder efforts.

Even as hopes grew for a ceasefire, war raged on. At least 17 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in an Israeli strike in the Gaza town of Zawayda on Saturday (August 17, 2024), health officials said, as Israel issued new evacuation orders, citing Hamas rocket fire nearby.

The latest round of war in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict began on October, 7 when Hamas fighters rampaged into Israel, killing around 1,200 people and seizing around 250 hostages according to Israeli tallies.

Israel’s subsequent military campaign has reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel says it has eliminated 17,000 Hamas fighters.