For 10 hours a day, Rahimullah sells socks from his cart in eastern Kabul, earning about $4.5 to $6 per day. It’s a pittance, but it’s all he has to feed his family of five.

Mr. Rahimullah, who like many Afghans goes by only one name, is one of millions of Afghans who rely on humanitarian aid, both from the Afghan authorities and from international charity organisations, for survival.

An estimated 22.9 million people — nearly half the population — required aid in 2025, the International Committee for the Red Cross said in an article on its website Monday (December 22, 2025).

But severe cuts in international aid — including the halting of U.S. aid to programmes such as food distribution run by the United Nations’ World Food Programme — have severed this lifeline.

More than 17 million people in Afghanistan now face crisis levels of hunger in the winter, the World Food Programme warned last week, 3 million more than were at risk more than a year ago.

The slashing in aid has come as Afghanistan is battered by a struggling economy, recurrent droughts, two deadly earthquakes and the mass influx of Afghan refugees expelled from countries such as Iran and Pakistan. The resulting multiple shocks have severely pressured resources, including of housing and food.

Tom Fletcher, the U.N. humanitarian chief, told the Security Council in mid-December that the situation was compounded by “overlapping shocks,” including the recent earthquakes and increasing restrictions on humanitarian aid access and staff.

While Mr. Fletcher said nearly 22 million Afghans will need U.N. assistance in 2026, his organisation will focus on 3.9 million facing the most urgent need of lifesaving help due to reduced donor contributions.

Fletcher said this winter was “the first in years with almost no international food distribution”.

“As a result, only about 1 million of the most vulnerable people have received food assistance during the lean season in 2025,” compared to 5.6 million last year, he said.

The year has been devastating for U.N. humanitarian organisations, which have had to cut thousands of jobs and spending in the wake of aid cuts.

“We are grateful to all of you who have continued to support Afghanistan. But as we look towards 2026, we risk a further contraction of life-saving help — at a time when food insecurity, health needs, strain on basic services, and protection risks are all rising,” Mr. Fletcher said.

The return of millions of refugees has added pressure on an already teetering system. Minister of Refugees and Repatriation Affairs Abdul Kabir said on Sunday (December 21, 2025) that 7.1 million Afghan refugees had returned to the country over the last four years, according to a statement on the Ministry website.

Mr. Rahimullah, 29, was one of them. The former Afghan Army soldier fled to neighboring Pakistan after the Taliban seized power in 2021. He was deported back to Afghanistan two years later, and initially received aid in the form of cash as well as food.

“The assistance was helping me a lot,” he said. But without it, “now I don’t have enough money to live on. God forbid, if I were to face a serious illness or any other problem, it would be very difficult for me to handle because I don’t have any extra money for expenses.”

The massive influx of former refugees has also sent rents skyrocketing. Mr. Rahimullah’s landlord has nearly doubled the rent of his tiny two-room home, with walls made half of concrete and half of mud and a homemade mud stove for cooking.

Instead of 4,500 afghanis (about $67), he now wants 8,000 afghanis (about $120) – a sum Mr. Rahimullah cannot afford. So he, his wife, daughter and two young sons will have to move next month. They don’t know where to.

Before the Taliban takeover, Mr. Rahimullah had a decent salary, and his wife worked as a teacher. But the new government’s draconian restrictions on women and girls mean women are barred from nearly all jobs, and his wife is unemployed.

“Now the situation is such that even if we find money for flour, we don’t have it for oil, and even if we find it for oil, we can’t pay the rent. And then there is the extra electricity bill,” Mr. Rahimullah said.

In Afghanistan’s northern province of Badakhshan, Sherin Gul is desperate. In 2023, her family of 12 got supplies of flour, oil, rice, beans, pulses, salt and biscuits. It was a lifesaver.

But it only lasted six months. Now, there is nothing. Her husband is old and weak and cannot work, she said. With 10 children, seven girls and three boys between the ages of 7 and 27, the burden of providing for the family has fallen on her 23-year-old son – the only one old enough to work. But even he only finds occasional jobs.

“There are 12 of us… and one person working cannot cover the expenses,” she said. “We are in great trouble.”

Sometimes neighbours take pity on them and give them food. Often, they all go hungry.

“There have been times when we have nothing to eat at night, and my little children have fallen asleep without food,” Ms. Gul said. “I have only given them green tea, and they have fallen asleep crying.”

Before the Taliban takeover, Ms. Gul worked as a cleaner, earning just about enough to feed her family. But the ban on women working has left her unemployed, and she said she developed a nervous disorder and is often sick.

Compounding their misery is the harsh cold of the northern Afghan winter, when snow halts construction work where her son can sometimes find jobs. And there is the added expense of firewood and charcoal.

“If this situation continues like this, we may face severe hunger,” Ms. Gul said. “And then it will be very difficult for us to survive in this cold weather.”

The Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in 2021 for the second time. Since then, the former insurgents have consolidated their grip on power, excluded women and girls from public life, stamped out internal dissent and external challengers, and gained debut recognition as the country’s official government from Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.

The Taliban govern through decrees, but Afghans have aspirations and needs that cannot be fulfilled through edicts and ideology.

Timeline of events in Afghanistan since Taliban takeover

Climate change, an increasing population, and severe cuts to foreign aid will test the Taliban’s ability to lead and not just rule. Here are five things to know about the Taliban as they start their fifth year in power:

Kandahar-based Hibatullah Akhundzada has led the Taliban from insurgency to authority since his appointment in 2016. But transition and status are peripheral to what he has wanted for the past 20 years: establishing an Islamic system.

Central to this vision was his ratification last year of the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Law, which codifies many aspects of Afghan life, including who people can befriend.

UN concerned by Taliban’s arrest of Afghan women and girls for dress code violations

In June, Akhundzada said the Taliban had fought and sacrificed themselves for the implementation of Islamic law. “It was obligatory to follow the leadership’s commands and directives,” he added, and everyone was required to act within the bounds of this obedience.

His supporters emphasise his superior religious authority to issue decrees. The Higher Education Minister went one step further in April, equating criticism of Akhundzada with blasphemy and saying obedience to him was a divine order.

“He [the leader] decides what moves and what doesn’t move, what happens and what doesn’t,” said Ibraheem Bahiss, a senior analyst with Crisis Group’s Asia programme.

There were pockets within the Taliban that initially advocated lifting bans on women and girls, or at least modifying them, to allow greater global and financial engagement. Akhundzada and his circle withstood such pressure, however, and the Taliban government has emerged from its isolation to develop diplomatic ties and raise several billion dollars every year in tax revenues to keep the lights on.

Power brokers, including Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, have been weakened. Since November, Akhundzada has had direct control over Afghanistan’s weapons and military equipment, sidelining the Interior Ministry and the Defense Ministry, which is run by Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, whose father founded the Taliban.

Pakistan in no hurry to recognise Afghan Taliban rule: Officials

Haqqani, whose uncle was killed in a high-profile suicide attack last December, used to take swipes at the leadership. Not anymore. Haqqani, who heads a powerful network of his own, cannot start a fight with the Kandahar faction and win.

Political deputy Sher Abbas Stanikzai rebuked Akhundzada in January, stating the education bans had no basis in Islamic law or Sharia. He left Afghanistan shortly afterwards and remains outside the country. He denies reports that he fled or faced arrest had he stayed.

Akhundzada has put Islamic law at the heart of his leadership, while also putting his leadership at the heart of its implementation. “He’s made himself indispensable, and the entire movement is beholden to him,” Mr. Bahiss said.

Russia’s recognition of the Taliban sends a “deeply troubling” message, said Zahra Nader, the editor-in-chief of the Afghan women-led newsroom Zan Times. “It tells the Taliban they can continue to suppress women’s rights and commit systematic human rights violations without facing consequences. They are being rewarded for it. This move is a slap in the face to Afghan women.”

“There is opposition to the Taliban’s policies, but people are fearful because no powerful alternative exists,” she said. The Taliban “took the country by force and maintained control” through violence. Women took to Afghanistan’s streets in protest after the takeover, but these were met with retaliation.

“The absence of visible protest should not be mistaken for acceptance,” said Ms. Nader. “It reflects the extreme risks people face for dissent. The resistance is still there, quiet, private, and simmering, but public expression has been crushed through fear and force.”

The Taliban insist that women’s rights are protected. Ms. Nader says that, although there is “little faith” that the country’s rulers will change their policies, women are preparing themselves “emotionally and intellectually” for a future beyond the Taliban.

“That hope, that this brutality will not last forever, is what keeps many of them going. These women do not believe the regime will change its stance on women’s rights.” It’s not trust or shared values that define the Taliban’s relationships.

Afghanistan borders six countries, many of which are trade partners and also balk at being lectured by the West on rights and freedoms. Landlocked Afghanistan is sandwiched between the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia, making it strategically located for energy-rich and energy-hungry nations.

The Taliban’s bilateral relations proceed on common ground: borders, water, transit, and security. Anti-migrant rhetoric, especially in Europe, could increase diplomatic engagement as political parties in the West seek to placate their supporters.

The U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said the Taliban’s broader diplomatic interactions were eroding the “non-recognition” approach of the West and ushering in “creeping normalisation.”

The Taliban feel comfortable in the region and have found an acceptable way of operating, while the region has adjusted to their presence.

“What we’ve seen in the last four years is not real pressure (on the Taliban), but rather normalisation and appeasement,” Ms. Nader said. “For those of us watching from inside and outside Afghanistan, this is not just political, it’s personal. It’s painful. It confirms our fear that the suffering of Afghan women is being sidelined in favour of political interests.”

Until April, the U.S. was the largest donor to Afghanistan, where more than half of the population relies on aid to survive. But it terminated this emergency assistance owing to concerns that the Taliban were benefiting from such aid.

Thousands of Afghans, including women, will lose their jobs as non-governmental organisations and agencies scale back their work or shut down. The loss of jobs, contracts, and the shrinking humanitarian footprint also equate to a loss in revenue for the Taliban.

One U.N. agency said there were “reputational and staff security risks” where humanitarian agencies were forced to suspend operations owing to reduced funding, causing grievances among communities, or after partners couldn’t pay suppliers or complete contracts. Aid officials warn that frustration and an increase in tensions will trigger spontaneous violence as people compete for resources and services.

The cuts coincide with the mass expulsions of Afghans from neighbouring countries, swelling the population and the ranks of the unemployed while also halting the flow of inward remittances. The World Health Organization estimates the population will increase by 85% to 76.88 million by 2050. Afghanistan needs to give people food, shelter, and economic opportunities.

Thomas Ruttig, from the Afghanistan Analysts Network, recalled meeting a leading Taliban figure in a “completely rundown” office during the late 1990s. The Taliban fighter told him they could live under those circumstances, but foreigners couldn’t.

“What they also say is that Afghans can live under those circumstances, which, to an extent, is true,” said Ruttig. “They were forced to live under those circumstances and have learned how to cope.” Now their means of coping — houses, land, and some savings — are gone.

“The Taliban took it for granted that they won the war with the help of Allah and the population,” he explained. He added that, although the Taliban were a reflection of Afghans’ ambitions, they needed to open up and listen to people’s concerns.

“But they know the more they open up, the more they are questioned, and their rule might be undermined.”

The Taliban needed to think about whether they wanted to govern the country simply to rule it, said Ruttig. “Or do we want to rule this country to make Afghanistan a better place to live? That’s probably the big question in front of them.”