Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are so far apart that only a continental drift can bring them closer. It is not just that one is African-American and the other White. Or that one is a woman and the other is a man. Or that Kamala Harris is a Californian and Donald Trump a New Yorker. More significantly, Kamala Harris’s campaign is leveraged on a diminishing statistic while Mr. Trump’s is set on an ascending one.

The two campaigns

Abortion rights are topmost on Ms. Harris’s to-do list, but how pressing is that? The rate of abortion has fallen steadily in the United States since the 1970s when the verdict in Roe vs Wade was passed. Legalising abortion did not result in more abortions, as some of the opponents to the judgment feared. Nor was there a dramatic increase in abortion clinics.

While abortion rates are falling, immigration, which is Mr. Trump’s cause, is rising. The immigration acts of 1965 and 1990 allowed Latin Americans and Asians in and, since then, the bulk of U.S. migrants have been Mexicans. There is a sharp rise too in unauthorised migrants who, today, comprise about 25% of foreign-born people in the U.S.

Between 1981 and 2021, abortion rates fell in the U.S. from 29.3 per 1,000 women in the 15-44 year age range to 11.6 abortions per 1,000 women. The fall is not because some States have put restrictions on abortion but rather on account of highly effective contraceptive methods, such as the intrauterine device. Also, more women seek careers now rather than raising children.

To then peg an election campaign primarily on abortion does not resonate with women the way it used to in the 1970s. No doubt, abortions still happen, often forcing women to travel, under duress, from their home State, which restricts abortion, to another where it is allowed. This can result in fatalities, but not at an overwhelming rate. Paradoxically, women beyond the child-bearing age are very committed to bringing abortion rights back simply because they fought for it in the 1970s. It was a great advance then not only because unwanted pregnancies were high but also because single parents could now pay greater attention to child rearing than child bearing.

The tirade against migrants

In contrast to the pre-1965 profile where most migrants were White, today about 50% of immigrants to the US are from Latin America, and as much as a quarter from Mexico alone. This probably explains why Mr. Trump’s tirade against migrants from south of the border is so appealing. There are so many of them and they all look so different.

In 2022, about 10.6 million immigrants (or 23% of all immigrants in the U.S.) were Mexicans. Next were those from India (6%) and China (5%). Though 77% of immigrants are in the U.S. legally, about 25%, mostly Mexicans, are unauthorised. This was not so till 1968 when primarily Europeans and the British could enter the U.S.

Donald Trump’s grandfather was an immigrant from Germany and got in easily. Yet, he hid this ancestry for, in those days, Germans were looked down upon, much like the Mexicans are today. However, time and skin colour have erased that memory, and their descendants, like Donald Trump, have low tolerance for latter day Latin America migrants.

Editorial | Neck and neck: On the U.S. presidential election

As the presence of migrants is combustible, all of them are clubbed together for the authorised ones are not bodily stamped. Fighting for the cause of migrants then becomes a huge altruistic effort for they cannot fight for themselves. It is home advantage for those who rally behind the “Make America Great Again” banner.

This is also the reason why Mr. Trump does not have a full cast of celebrities on stage with him. His cause needs no translation into everyday tongue. Any attempt to undermine the huge presence of unauthorised migrants will be met instantly with hostility and disbelief. Unsurprisingly, Ms. Harris tends to wander when confronted with this issue.

As abortion rights actively matter to fewer women today, Democrats are forced to frame this demand in terms of rights and that always needs explanation. As Ms. Harris readily cedes ground on this if religious leaders intervene, the moral ownership of that right is vastly weakened. When law and morality clash, morality usually wins.

That is why Ms. Harris is usually part of an elaborate ensemble in public with entertainers such as Bruce Springsteen, Usher, Lizzie, and now even Beyoncé. Barack Obama is also pushing for her onstage, and so has Michelle Obama. In the medley, one is likely to lose sight of the lead actor, Kamala Harris herself; she gets lost in the crowd.

In totality

The polls say it is an even fight but Ms. Harris’s camp is working much harder as a lot of their trek is uphill. Mr. Trump, in contrast, is on cruise control and travels light. He is the star of the show — an entertainer and political leader in one handy wrap. If he has somebody else on stage, that will be a side order. Nobody eclipses him when his show comes on.

In recent memory, the contrasting styles of the finalists has never been so stark. This is all because of the cause each one promotes. Ms. Harris’s case is loaded with itsy-bitsy, fading numbers that need a regimen of grey cells to arrange. Mr. Trump’s appeal has a gut feel that requires little explanation. He sets your heart thumping, so your brain can rest.

Somewhere along the line, by intuition or by luck, Mr. Trump has mastered the art of keeping it simple, even if it seems stupid. That is politics.

Dipankar Gupta is a retired professor of sociology, Jawaharlal Nehru University

Houston, United States:

Superstar Beyonce provided the latest shot of stardust to Kamala Harris’s White House campaign on Friday, as the vice president and rival Donald Trump courted voters with just 11 days to go in a neck-and-neck election.

Taking the stage with her Destiny’s Child co-star Kelly Rowland, the Grammy-winning diva introduced Harris to over 20,000 roaring supporters in the Texas metropolis of Houston, Beyonce’s hometown.

“It’s time for America to sing a new song,” Beyonce said, urging voters to show up.

While the superstar did not perform any hits, her presence brought even more attention to Harris’s rally, which focused on abortion restrictions in Republican-led states.

Beyonce said she was not there as a celebrity but as “a mother who cares deeply about the world… a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies.”

Texas is not one of the handful of battlegrounds that are expected to decide the presidential election, or where the Democrat and her rival would normally be campaigning in the home stretch.

But Harris is banking on her star-studded show — which also featured 91-year-old country legend Willie Nelson, who sang “Mamma, don’t let them babies grow up to be cowboys” — to energize her campaign ahead of the final week.

“Voting has already started, and we know this will be a tight race until the very end,” Harris said.

“We are 11 days out from an election that will decide the future of America, including the freedom of every woman to make decisions about her own body.”

‘Fascist’ row

While Harris was in Houston, Trump was in the state capital Austin, taping an interview with “The Joe Rogan Experience,” the United States’ most popular podcast.

Trump’s follow-on rally, in battleground Michigan, was delayed after his taping with Rogan ran on for three hours.

Harris and Trump also locked horns earlier Friday over accusations that the Republican ex-president has been running as a “fascist.”

The two camps traded barbs over claims by Trump’s longest-serving White House chief of staff, echoed by Harris, that Trump is a “fascist” who cannot be trusted with power again.

Republican leaders in Congress attacked her over that characterization, in a statement revealing they had been briefed on “ongoing and persistent” threats to Trump, and accused Harris of encouraging “another would-be assassin” after he survived an attempt on his life in July.

‘Garbage can’

Half the country agrees with Harris that Trump is a fascist, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll of registered voters, and she hit back at an impromptu news conference.

“The truth is that some of the people closest to Donald Trump, when he was president… have been very clear about the danger and the threat that (he) poses to America, and the fact that he is unfit to serve,” Harris said.

“The American people deserve to hear that, and know about that, so they can make a decision.”

Trump described the United States as a “garbage can for the world” for a second time this week while giving remarks in Austin — the latest in a string of inflammatory comments on immigration.

The race is a dead heat, according to polls. A New York Times/Siena College survey released Friday showed Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent each.

Both candidates have sought to broaden their support by sidestepping newspapers and the big TV networks in favor of podcasts and YouTube shows consumed by uncommitted young voters who could make the difference.

Trump hopes to woo Rogan’s massive audience. “The Joe Rogan Experience” was the world’s most listened-to podcast on streaming giant Spotify in 2023 and has 17.5 million subscribers on YouTube. 

‘Bad things happen’

Trump’s latest remarks ahead of the recording aimed at undermining trust in US elections and alarming Americans about crime committed by undocumented immigrants, who are statistically more law-abiding than the native population.

He complained that elections “go on forever, and bad things happen.”

Harris is “here in Texas to rub shoulders with woke celebrities. Isn’t that exciting? But she’s not going to meet with any of the victims of migrant crime while she’s here,” he said.

Harris is banking on the issue of abortion to help sell her message that Trump is a threat to Americans’ freedoms.

“Texas, what is happening across this state and our country is a health care crisis, and Donald Trump is the architect of it,” Harris said, describing the agony of several women who were forced to travel out of state for emergency medical care.

“Please know, no one is protected if there is a Trump national abortion ban.”

November’s presidential election will be the first held after a 2022 US Supreme Court ruling overturned nationwide protection of abortion.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Johnstown, United States:

Republican White House nominee Donald Trump sought Friday to contain the blast radius of a fierce backlash over his remarks publicly backing away from right-wing positions on reproductive rights.

The ex-president has been under fire from conservatives over an announcement that in a second term, he would ensure free in vitro fertilization (IVF) — an expensive fertility procedure that many in the anti-abortion movement want to see curbed.

The rift widened as he hit out at his home state Florida’s six-week abortion ban, calling it too restrictive and suggesting he planned to vote for an upcoming ballot measure that would make the procedure legal until a fetus becomes viable.

Trump, 78, walked back the comment ahead of a rally in the battleground state of Pennsylvania on Friday, telling Fox News that “I will be voting no.”

But conservatives had already begun criticizing Trump’s ever-shifting positions on abortion, with a new Republican policy platform dropping calls for a national ban and the tycoon’s recent claim that his government would be “great” for reproductive rights.

The pushback from anti-abortion groups on his latest remarks was swift, with activists warning that he risks alienating his base.

Evangelical theologian Albert Mohler said Trump’s positions appeared “almost calculated to alienate pro-life voters” while conservative commentator Erick Erickson posted that Trump’s abortion stance “will be a bridge too far for too many.”

Trump’s rally, in Johnstown, was notable for the absence of any remarks on reproductive rights, despite Thursday’s big IVF announcement. 

The campaign of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was happy to weigh in on the issue, smelling blood in the water. 

“The majority of Americans support abortion access, they support IVF, they support contraception,” Mini Timmaraju, of the Reproductive Freedom for All lobby group, told reporters in a campaign call.

“(Trump) has finally figured it out, and he’ll do anything to distract from his abysmal, horrifying record on this issue.”

‘He is pro-life’ 

Trump has been all over the map on abortion in the last 15 years, initially describing himself as “pro-choice” before calling for “some form of punishment” for women seeking the procedure. 

He boasts about appointing Supreme Court justices who ended federal protections for abortion access in 2022 but has more recently begun to worry that Republicans are out of step with the majority of voters on reproductive rights.

His IVF pledge appeared calculated to appeal to moderates but will upset conservatives who for years opposed Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act because they were against the redistributive economics of taxpayer-funded health insurance.  

Almost every Senate Republican voted against assuring IVF access in a vote in June — including Trump’s running mate JD Vance — and more than half of the House Republican lawmakers have sponsored legislation that threatens its legality.

Republicans are divided on fertility treatments such as IVF, with many hailing them as a boost to American families.

Others, with strong beliefs that life begins at conception, oppose IVF because the procedure can produce multiple embryos, not all of which get used.

Abortion rights activists worry that the Supreme Court decision threatens IVF and were given cause by a February ruling in Alabama that frozen embryos could be considered people, causing several clinics to briefly pause treatments.

Yet if the abortion and IVF rows threatened to alienate Trump’s most loyal supporters, rally-goers in Johnstown weren’t showing it.

“It’s not enough to make me not vote for him, no way, because he is pro-life,” said Lisa Davis, a 54-year-old retired office manager from the nearby town of Somerset.

“I know he wants to give some exceptions — and I think there should be.”

“Why should I pay with my tax dollars for a baby getting killed?” added retired nurse Rosemary Drzal, 69.

A fireside chat-style appearance at the conservative pressure group Moms for Liberty later Friday did not touch on the issue.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)