Mumbai:

Four hours into the counting of votes for Maharashtra Assembly polls, the BJP-led Mahayuti seems set for a landslide win, bouncing back emphatically from its setback in the Lok Sabha polls this year. 

The Mahayuti is currently leading on 221 out of 288 Assembly seats, scoring a comprehensive victory over the Opposition bloc Maha Vikas Aghadi, which is lagging far behind at 56. The BJP leads the Mahayuti show, leading in 124 out of the 148 seats it contested. It has been supported well by its allies — Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Both have surged ahead of their rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in an election seen as a fight to prove which faction is the ‘real Sena’ and the ‘real NCP’.

While the Mahayuti camp has much to celebrate today, complications are waiting in the wings. And these complications are similar to the ones that emerged after the 2019 Maharashtra election, also won by NDA.

Who Will Be Chief Minister

The big question that emerges after the NDA’s victory is — who will be the next Maharashtra Chief Minister? Both Mr Fadnavis and Mr Shinde are cruising to comfortable victories in Nagpur South-West and Kopdi Pachpakhadi seats, respectively. 

The BJP is the anchor of the Mahayuti alliance and has scored the best strike rate among all NDA allies. Against this backdrop, the party is likely to push for the Chief Minister post, with senior leader Devendra Fadnavis as its clear choice. But the Shinde Sena may dig in its heels and argue that the Mahayuti went into the election with Eknath Shinde as the government’s face and that the state government’s policies and promises played a key role behind the massive mandate in this election.

Earlier, when the rebellion led by Mr Shinde toppled the Uddhav Thackeray government and split Shiv Sena, the BJP had taken a moral high ground by giving up the Chief Minister post. But with over 120 MLAs in their kitty, they might not be so generous this time.

Also, with all three allies performing in their strongholds, this verdict creates a breeding ground for hard bargains over ministerial posts.

A 2019 Repeat?

Interestingly, the Maharashtra result may just create a situation similar to the post-poll scenario five years back. In the 2019 state polls, the BJP had won 105 seats and the undivided Shiv Sena 56. After the results, differences cropped up over the Chief Minister post. While Uddhav Thackeray claimed an understanding over rotational Chief Ministership, the BJP denied any such pact. Eventually, the Sena pulled the plug, ending one of the most enduring alliances in the BJP’s history. Five years later, there are many more players in Maharashtra’s political landscape, with two factions each of Sena and NCP fighting an identity battle. And this time, the way numbers stand, the BJP and Eknath Shinde are where the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray were five years back. The question then is, will Mr Shinde blink or this victory will create a bigger challenge for the BJP? Giving up the Chief Minister post may be seen as a stepdown and pushing for it risks a rift in the alliance. There is, however, a big difference vis-a-vis 2019. With Ajit Pawar’s NCP putting up a good show, the BJP needs only one out of its two allies to reach the magic figure. The Shinde Sena will keep this in mind as it pushes for any bargain.

Speaking to the media as the trends showed a clear NDA edge, Mr Shinde had a cautious reply to the Chief Minister question. “We will sit and decide,” he said, adding, “(Prime Minister Narendra) Modji is our senior.” 

The Maha Vikas Aghadi Subplot

A big story in this election is the stunning setback suffered by the Congress-led INDIA alliance that won 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections months back. The Maha Vikas Aghadi is now leading in just 52 seats, with the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) ahead in 19, 19 and 14 seats, respectively.

Riding on its stellar show in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had bargained hard to get the best deal during seat-sharing. With the Opposition party failing to convert these contests into wins, the Congress will be at the receiving end of criticism and may be accused of the pulling the alliance down. Politically, it is a massive setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in the fight for their party’s identity. The two leaders, who have been trying to recover after mutinies split their party, now face an identity crisis as the breakaway factions score much better than their camps.

The rift between the Congress and ally Uddhav Thackeray’s faction of Shiv Sena has widened over the seats in Vidarbha. Altogether, the Sena (UBT) wants 17 seats from the Congress, which is apparently reluctant to hand over any. In Vidarbha, the Congress is confident of victory in all seats.

The two parties were already engaged in a tussle over seats in Mumbai and Nashik and following the war of words with state Congress chief Nana Patole, the Uddhav Thackeray faction has been scrambling for a solution.

Vidarbha has 62 assembly seats, covered under the 10 Lok Sabha seats. It represents 22 per cent of the seats in the 288-member assembly and could prove crucial in terms of gaining a majority.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi won seven of the 10 seats in Vidarbha. The Congress performance was the best and it won five of the seats – way ahead of the two won by the BJP.

Now, the Shiv Sena (UBT) wants at least 8 of the 62 seats. Party leader Sanjay Raut has said while there is no doubt about the Congress having a strong base in Vidarbha, “we also had 4-5 MPs from there”.

“If we also get 1 or 2 seats, then there is no harm in it,” he has said.

The Congress has argued that the Sena (UBT) is creating a rift in the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Sources say the party is not going to step back regarding Vidarbha, even though veteran leader and Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar has been firefighting in the background to patch up the rift. Sources said he has spoken to the Congress high command, as did Uddhav Thackeray.

Last week, at the Congress meet in Delhi under the chairmanship of party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, the state leaders were advised to speak with caution. The state leaders had told Mr Kharge that Uddhav Thackeray’s party is not cooperating with the seat sharing.

The Congress, though, has denied reports of rift and accused the BJP of spreading misinformation.

Congress’s Vijay Wadettiwar, leader of the Opposition in the Maharashtra Assembly, said, “Discussions are still pending on 17 seats in MVA. We are having a dispute with the Thackeray faction on some seats. There are three parties in the alliance. Seat sharing between the three parties takes time.”

Mr Patole has said that the first list of Congress candidates will come on October 22.

Senior leaders are now actively discussing how to resolve the differences.

Polling for the 288-member Maharashtra assembly will be held in a single phase on November 20 and the counting of votes will be held on November 23.

One of the key suspects in Narendra Dabholkar murder case, former Shiv Sena corporator from Jalna Shrikant Pangarkar.
| Photo Credit: Special Arrangement.

Shrikant Pangarkar, an accused in the 2017 murder of journalist Gauri Lankesh, which outraged the nation, joined Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in Jalna ahead of assembly polls.

Ms. Lankesh was shot dead outside her home in Karnataka capital Bengaluru on September 5, 2017.

A probe by police in Karnataka with assistance from agencies in Maharashtra led to the arrest of several persons.

Pangarkar, a Jalna municipal councillor of the undivided Shiv Sena between 2001 and 2006, was arrested in August 2018 and was granted bail by the Karnataka High Court on September 4 this year.

After he was denied a ticket by the Shiv Sena in 2011, Pangarkar joined the right-wing Hindu Janjagruti Samiti.

He joined the Shinde-led Shiv Sena on Friday in the presence of party leader and former State Minister Arjun Khotkar.

“Pangarkar is a former Shiv Sainik and has returned to the party. He has been nominated as the chief of the Jalna assembly poll campaign,” Mr. Khotkar told reporters.

Mr. Khotkar also said he wants to contest the assembly poll from Jalna, but added seat sharing discussions in the Mahayuti (ruling alliance comprising Shiv Sena, BJP and Ajit Pawar-led NCP) were still underway.

The seat is held by Congress’ Kailash Gorantyal.

Maharashtra assembly polls will be held on November 20, while results will be declared on November 23. The term of the current assembly ends on November 26.

Mumbai:

Congress MLA from Igatpuri, Hiraman Bhika Khoskar, has joined the Ajit Pawar led-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), ahead of the Assembly elections in Maharashtra. Mr Khoskar and his supporters officially joined the NCP at Ajit Pawar’s residence in Mumbai on Monday.

Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and State NCP President Sunil Tatkare welcomed Khoskar into the party.

“Hiraman Bhika Khoskar joined the NCP with dozens of his supporters including former Zila Parishad member Sampatnana Sakale in the presence of Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and Maharashtra NCP President Sunil Tatkare in Pune,” said NCP’s statement.

इगतपुरीचे आमदार आणि आदिवासी समाजाचे नेते श्री. हिरामण खोसकर यांनी आज राष्ट्रवादीचे विकासाभिमुख विचार स्वीकारत माझ्या आणि प्रदेशाध्यक्ष खा. सुनील तटकरे यांच्या उपस्थितीत आपल्या प्रमुख सहकाऱ्यांसह राष्ट्रवादी काँग्रेस पक्षात प्रवेश केला. आमदार खोसकर यांचा पक्षप्रवेश म्हणजे… pic.twitter.com/iYO5e6oLcS

— Ajit Pawar (@AjitPawarSpeaks) October 14, 2024

The party further highlighted that it is the “second biggest” member joining the NCP and mentioned that veteran actor Sayaji Shinde also joined the party in Mumbai.

The party also reiterated that Mr Khoskar’s joining will be strengthening the party in Nashik and surrounding areas ahead of the Assembly elections.

“Khoskar enjoys much support in Nashik region particularly in the tribal community,” the statement added.

Announcing the new member in a post on X, the party highlighted multiple other members who joined the party who have been zilla parishad members and also former officials in various districts.

Sandeep Gopal Gulve, Sampatanana Sakale, former Zilla Parishad member Jarnadan Mama Mali, Former Zilla Parishad member Uday Jadhav, Vinayak Malekar, Jairam Dhande, Prashant Kadu, Pandumama Shinde, Dnyaneshwar Kadu, Sarpanch Jagan Kadam, Feroze Shaikh, Dilip Chaudhary, Tukaram Sahane, Ramesh Jadhav, Dashrath Bhagde, Sudam Bhor, Arun Gaikar, Shivaji Sirsat also joined the NCP.

“With the entry of Khoskar, the strength of the NCP party has increased,” said the post.

Maharashtra Assembly elections will be held in 288 constituencies. The Election Commission of India has not yet announced the dates for the election.

The upcoming Maharashtra election will see a contest between the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition — comprising the Shiv Sena-UBT, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Congress and the Mahayuti Alliance — which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction).

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)