Last Tuesday (March 10, 2026) night, the skies above Erbil — the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Region — flashed with the streaks of air defence interceptors. According to Erbil’s governor, at least 17 drones targeted the city in a single night, triggering sirens and sending residents scrambling indoors — a stark reminder that one of the West Asia’s most stable corners is now being drawn into a widening regional confrontation.
Debris crashed into a civilian home near the United States consulate and landed close to a major public venue. Northern Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, which hosts several Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, has seen a slew of such attacks since the war in what officials describe as a rapidly escalating campaign in the region.
In the latest attack, multiple explosions on Monday (March 16, 2026) night rocked Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, with at least four persons killed in an air strike on a building used by an Iran-backed group, and drone strikes targeting the United States Embassy. The deadly attack in Baghdad’s Jadriyah district followed the sound of an explosion from near the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone early on Tuesday (March 17, 2026).
Also read | ‘Kurds seek a democratic Iran; we do not fight other powers’ wars’, says Iranian Kurdish party
The strikes hitting the region now come from multiple directions: Iranian missile attacks targeting Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq, drone strikes by Iran-aligned militias targeting U.S. bases, and retaliatory operations linked to the widening confrontation between Tehran and Washington.
Kurdish lawmakers in Baghdad warn that the federal government’s muted response risks further destabilising the country. Civilian areas have also been affected: among those wounded in recent strikes were a delivery driver in Erbil, a nurse in a camp near Koya, and a child in the Qalawa neighbourhood of Sulaimaniyah, heightening anxiety among residents who had long regarded the Kurdistan Region as a relative refuge from the violence affecting the rest of Iraq.
Since February 28, when the United States and Israel intensified their attack on Iran, the Kurdistan Region has endured 307 strikes by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups, killing eight persons and injuring 51, according to Community Peacemaker Team-Iraqi Kurdistan, which monitors movements and violations along the Iraq-Iran border.
“In addition to the loss of life, the attacks carried out by the IRGC, and its affiliated groups have caused damage to civilian homes, oil fields, telecommunications infrastructure, hotels, public spaces, and government and civil institutions,” said Kamaran Osman, a member of the CPT Iraqi Kurdistan team. “During the past week alone, 21 civilian homes were hit by fragments of suicide drones and remnants of explosive ordnance.”
Among the dead were a security employee at Erbil International Airport, four Kurdish fighters linked to Iranian opposition groups, and a French soldier killed in a drone strike on a joint military base southwest of Erbil. The confrontation between Iran, the U.S. and Israel are increasingly spilling across borders and threatening to pull Iraq back into a conflict it has struggled for years to escape.
‘Boots on ground’
Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have suffered casualties in the latest wave of attacks. At least five fighters from different Iranian Kurdish organisations have been killed in the recent attacks. Iranian Kurdish refugee camps and the military headquarters of Iranian Kurdish parties in the Kurdistan Region were targeted 43 times, according to CPT.
Northern Iraq has long served as a sanctuary for Iranian Kurdish dissidents. Several organisations, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, Komala Party of the Toilers of Kurdistan, PAK and Khabat, maintain armed camps, political offices and refugee camps in the region.
On February 22, six of these groups announced the formation of the Alliance of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, an umbrella coalition opposing the Iranian government, a rare move given their longstanding disagreement.
Some of these groups maintain armed wings and have historically conducted operations against Iranian forces inside Iran’s Kurdish regions. In recent weeks, speculation surfaced in Washington that such fighters could potentially play a role in a broader pressure campaign against Tehran.
U.S. President Donald Trump, at one point, suggested it would be “wonderful” if Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq crossed into Iran to attack the regime, a remark that alarmed Kurdish leaders and risked provoking Tehran.
Mr. Trump later appeared to walk back the suggestion, saying the United States did not want to complicate the war further. The Iranian Kurdish groups themselves have denied any coordinated role in the conflict so far, even as they remain targets of Iranian attacks.
U.S. involvement
The escalation is pulling U.S. forces in Iraq back into confrontation against their old adversary: Iran-backed Shia militias that battled U.S. forces during the years following the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Militias allied with Tehran have launched dozens of drone and rocket attacks on American targets, including facilities near Erbil International Airport, a base used by U.S. forces at Harir, and even the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.
According to CPT, during the past week, consulates, military bases, and facilities connected to the U.S. government in the Kurdistan Region were targeted 39 times, bringing the total number of such attacks to 97 since the start of the conflict. Condemning the attacks, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani described them as a “terrorist act” carried out by “rogue groups”.
For years, the U.S. sought to wind down its military involvement in the country, but the latest attack could change things on the ground. Iran holds deep influence in the country through Shia political parties and armed factions collectively known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), while the United States still holds significant leverage through security cooperation, economic ties and remaining troop presence.
The widening conflict is also threatening to draw international troops: a drone last week also struck a joint Peshmerga-French military base at Mala Qara, about 60 km southwest of Erbil, killing a French soldier and injuring six others. France, which keeps troops in the Kurdistan Region as part of the international coalition that continues training local forces, called the strike “unacceptable.”
Increasing tensions
Tensions between Erbil and Baghdad are also increasing over oil exports and financial controls.
Kurdish leaders have called for urgent dialogue to resolve the growing political and economic dispute after Baghdad proposed exporting up to 3,00,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan pipeline to Turkiye’s Ceyhan port.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), however, has accused Iraq of imposing what it describes as a “suffocating embargo” by restricting Kurdish access to dollars through the ASYCUDA customs system, a financial lever that can affect the KRG’s oil exports and revenues, and failing to prevent attacks by Iran-aligned groups. Iraqi political blocs rejected their demand, insisting that oil exports remain a federal authority under Baghdad.
Oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan Region remain largely stalled, with energy facilities repeatedly targeted by drone and missile strikes, further disrupting already fragile energy infrastructure. Iraq announced on Monday that it will begin exporting oil directly from Kirkuk to Turkiye, bypassing the Kurdistan Region.
For Iraq, whose economy depends heavily on oil exports, a prolonged conflict risks disrupting energy exports and deepening the country’s already fragile political divisions and economic tensions.
Caught in the midst
On Monday (March 16, 2026) night, a drone struck the Al-Rasheed Hotel, one of the most high-profile hotels known to host dignitaries on a regular basis, in central Baghdad. Eyewitnesses captured flames and thick smoke billowing from the upper floors of the landmark building, in one of the biggest attacks on the Iraqi capital since the war began. Iraq’s former Deputy Minister Hoshyar Zebari called it an “all-out war” by Iraqi militias. “Tonight attacks on Al Rashid Hotel in Baghdad & U.S. Embassy in Green Zone in Baghdad and Victory base in BIAP plus attacks on Erbil mean an all-out war by the Iraqi militias to broaden the conflict and engulf the country in the current military conflict,” he wrote on X.
For decades, Iraq has served as a geopolitical crossroads where regional and international actors compete for influence, a rivalry now playing out on its soil once again.
Tens of thousands of fighters belonging to Iranian-aligned militias operate across the country, while U.S. forces maintain several military facilities — many now concentrated in the Kurdistan Region.
Kurdish authorities have also stepped-up criticism of Baghdad’s response. Safeen Dizayee, head of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Department of Foreign Relations, condemned what he described as militia drone strikes targeting civilian and diplomatic sites in the region.
“We strongly condemn the militia drone attacks on the Kurdistan Region’s infrastructure and civilian sites, including the recent targeting of the UAE Consulate General in Erbil and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,” Mr. Dizayee said in a statement on Sunday, urging the federal government and security forces to disarm the “lawless groups.”
Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani also held a telephone conversation with Tom Barrack, the United States Ambassador to Turkiye and Special Envoy for Syria, during which both sides condemned the recent attacks on the Kurdistan Region and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
So far, the conflict has seen more than 7,000 strikes carried out on Iranian targets by the United States and Israel, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), while Iran has responded by launching over 2,000 drones and 600 missiles. It has also begun to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil trade.
Anisha Dutta is a journalist based in New York
