What does Trump want from Iran?

The U.S. has mounted its largest military build-up in West Asia since the 2003 Iraq invasion. It has deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups, dozens of fighter jets and warships, refuelling aircraft and advanced missile defence systems. President Donald Trump has said he would use force if Iran fails to reach a deal. Yet he has also sent mixed signals about the purpose of the deployment and what exactly Washington wants from Tehran.

Does the U.S. seek regime change in Iran, as it once did in Iraq and Afghanistan? Is the current escalation driven by Iran’s crackdown on domestic protests, its nuclear programme or its missile development? Mr. Trump has yet to articulate a coherent narrative explaining the objectives of his Iran policy.

Protests in Iran

On January 2, 2026, immediately after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida, Mr. Trump said the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to respond if Iran killed protesters. On January 13, after Iran cracked down on protests, Mr. Trump asked Iranians to “take over institutions” and said that “help is on the way”. But Mr. Trump did not order a strike on Iran. He later claimed that Iran had paused planned executions of protesters. He then sent more offensive and defensive weapons to the region.

On January 29, Mr. Trump shifted focus away from protests and urged Tehran to come and negotiate a deal on its nuclear programme. This marked a notable turn. In early January, while threatening military action against Iran, he had made no reference to the nuclear issue. In June 2025, after attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, Mr. Trump had claimed that he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.

Nuclear diplomacy

Amid tensions and threats, the U.S. and Iran resumed nuclear diplomacy on February 6 in Muscat, Oman. Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy for West Asia, met Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister. There were apparent disputes about the framework of the talks. Iran said it was ready to discuss the nuclear programme and open to a “fair and equitable deal”. But Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, said on February 4, before the first round of talks, that discussions should cover Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes, its support for militia groups in the region and its treatment of its population. Despite the disagreements, talks went ahead.

On February 22, after two rounds of talks, Mr. Witkoff said in an interview that Mr. Trump had given him and Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law who is also part of the negotiating team, a clear direction on what they wanted to achieve. “Zero zero enrichment, we have to get the material back.” He was referring to Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Mr. Witkoff did not say anything about Iran’s missile programme or its support for militias when he talked about Mr. Trump’s red lines. He also said that the President was curious to know why Iran “has not capitulated” despite America’s troop build-up near its shores.

Iranian officials have repeatedly said that they were not planning to make a nuclear bomb, but refused to give up their enrichment capabilities or enriched uranium. Iran’s missile programme and its support for militias, they say, are non-negotiable.

Deal or war?

On February 24, on the eve of Mr. Trump’s State of the Union Address, Mr. Araghchi confirmed a third round of talks with the U.S. on February 26. “Our fundamental convictions are crystal clear: Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon,” he wrote in a social media post. “Neither will Iranians forgo our right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people,” he said.

In his State of the Union Address, Mr. Trump did not speak much on Iran.

He repeated his claim that the U.S. attack had “obliterated Iran’s nuclear programme”. The Iranians are starting their nuclear programme “all over”, he added. “They want to make a deal but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon’.” He slammed Iran’s missile programme, its support for militias and its crackdown on protesters, but he did not demand any concession about these issues as part of a deal. He did not even mention Iran’s enrichment capabilities.

Mr. Trump talked only about a nuclear weapon. He said he “will never allow” Iran to have nuclear weapons. And the Iranians have repeatedly said that they were not planning to have a nuclear bomb. “If the main issue in the negotiations is Iran not developing nuclear weapons, this aligns with #Leader_Fatwa and #Iran_Defensive_Doctrine, and an immediate agreement is within reach,” Ali Shamkhani, chief of Iran’s newly created Defence Council and a heavyweight in the system, wrote in a social media post on Thursday, referring to Supreme Leader Khamenei’s fatwa against nuclear weapons. “Araghchi has sufficient support and authority for this deal,” he added.