Sudan civil war: Deepening humanitarian crisis

Displaced Sudanese who fled El-Fasher after the city fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rest in the camp located on the southwestern edge of Tawila

Sudan’s economy has contracted sharply since the civil war broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on April 15, 2023. Its GDP, which had already been weakening, saw its steepest contraction in 2023-24, shrinking by 29%.

The civil war stems from a power struggle between the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo or ‘Hemedti’. Tensions between the two forces (who had earlier cooperated in the removal of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and later jointly carried out the 2021 coup) escalated over plans to integrate the RSF into the national army. Reports said both generals wanted to cling to power, unwilling to give up wealth and influence. The dispute became a nationwide conflict, splitting Sudan into zones of control: the SAF in the east and centre, including Port Sudan and parts of Khartoum, and the RSF across most of Darfur and large parts of Kordofan.

The RSF has intensified its offensive across the Kordofan region even as a recent drone strike on the town of Kalogi killed dozens of civilians, including children, according to the UN. The attack on Kalogi, an army-held area in South Kordofan, involved three strikes. A kindergarten and a hospital were hit, and a third strike was carried out as residents attempted to rescue injured children.

The strike comes at a time when the RSF is consolidating control in western Sudan and pushing deeper into the oil-rich Kordofan region, while the SAF is attempting to secure key routes linking central Sudan to the west. Analysts say the RSF’s territorial gains in Darfur and Kordofan give it the basis to run a parallel administration in the west, while the SAF retains central and eastern areas.

The escalation in Kordofan follows a major shift in the war: the fall of El Fasher after an 18-month siege. El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, was the last SAF stronghold in the region. During the siege, the RSF encircled the city using sand berms and cut off civilian movement. Data from ACLED show nearly 400 incidents of violence targeting civilians in El Fasher and surrounding areas between April 2023 and late October 2025. More than 55% of these incidents occurred in 2025. Over 1,400 people were reported killed in the region in this period.

The humanitarian crisis remains severe. The conflict has resulted in more than 50,000 reported deaths.

Displacement figures show that at least 9.8 million people have been forced to flee their homes as of September 2025, the largest as well as the fastest growing displacement crisis globally.

Market data show how the conflict is reshaping survival conditions. In Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan, the price of sorghum remained relatively stable for nearly two decades until the conflict escalated. Recent figures show that prices have surged more than tenfold, crossing $40 for a three kilogram measure in 2025.

In El Fasher, the effect on food access has been even more extreme. By 2025, the cost of 3.5 kilograms of millet exceeded $500.

Nationwide food insecurity data shows a worsening of conditions over the past three years (Chart 5). Sudan entered famine conditions for the first time in September 2025, with 1% of the population now classified at the highest level of food insecurity. The share of the population with minimal food security came down from 47% in late 2022 to 24% in September 2025. Crisis-level food insecurity rose from 13% to 31%.