Why were Romanian polls annulled?

Catalin Georgescu has been portrayed as an admirer of Vladimir Putin and a critic of Romania’s membership of NATO and the EU.
| Photo Credit: DANIEL MIHAILESCU

The story so far:-

In an unprecedented ruling on December 6, Romania’s constitutional court unanimously annulled the country’s presidential elections, two days before the run-off ballot, amid allegations of Russian interference. Suspicions of foul play were fuelled when Calin Georgescu from the political fringe emerged frontrunner, securing 22.9% of the vote, after the first round of polling on November 24. A professor of environmental sciences who fought as an independent and had polled in single digits until then, Mr. Georgescu is an ex-honorary member of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party. He has been portrayed as an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a vocal critic of Romania’s membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). An established politician in Romania, Mr. Georgescu was even suggested as the Prime Minister candidate by the AUR party, which came second in the legislative elections of December 1.

The Constitutional Court in Bucharest had ordered a recount in response to complaints by two of the contestants who were eliminated in the first round. Once the exercise confirmed the previous tally, the judges certified the figures and had given the go ahead for the knock-out round on December 8. However, the unfolding dramatic turn of events prompted the court to call off the elections altogether, concluding that the process was marred by multiple irregularities. Welcoming the court’s decision, Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu — who incidentally was himself a presidential contender — remarked that the huge success of Mr. Georgescu’s social media campaign must have involved large sums of money, potentially far in excess of the legal limits.

How serious are the fraud allegations?

The ruling in Bucharest is the first time a western court has overturned an election following accusations of Russian meddling. Days before the aborted run-off, Romania’s National Security Council declassified troves of documents from the Interior Ministry, detailing how the country had been a target of Russian cybercrimes, information leaks and sabotage. It said some 800 TikTok accounts created in 2016 were activated in support of Mr. Georgescu a month before the ballot and thousands closer to the polling date. More than 100 paid influencers with a few million followers were deployed to boost Mr. Georgescu’s prospects, according to the ministry. Romania’s secret service (SRI) has claimed that it has identified thousands of cyberattacks originating from Russian platforms, which routed their operations from several countries, and distorted the information presented to the public. The agency singled out Mr. Georgescu, who had claimed that he had no access to campaign funds, as having received preferential treatment from TikTok, because the platform owned by ByteDance did not label his video posts as political advertisement. TikTok has denied any wrongdoing and taken down thousands of disputed posts and promised full cooperation with the authorities. Telegram and Discord are the other channels Romanian authorities have blamed for involvement in these covert and coordinated operations.

What is the status of the European Commission probe?

In a complaint filed with the EU regulator, Romania’s media watchdog has alleged that TikTok’s algorithms amplified Mr. Georgescu’s content to the disadvantage of other candidates. Subject to available evidence, the commission could investigate the Chinese social media platform for potential violations under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). The law stipulates content moderation obligations on large online platforms to mitigate systemic risks, including the electoral processes and imposes penalties of of up to 6% of global annual turnover. TikTok has already been served an order under the DSA to preserve for scrutiny all its data relating to European elections.

What explains Georgescu’s appeal?

The TikTok messenger that spectacularly propelled his victory does not detract from the resonance of Mr. Georgescu’s ultra-nationalist message among an electorate disenchanted with the dominance of the mainstream Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party since the fall of communism. High inflation, a ballooning fiscal deficit and balance of payments challenges, not to mention rampant corruption in high places and contempt for the rule of law, have been weaponised by populist and extremist groups to peddle propaganda and conspiracy theories.

How widespread are concerns of Russian meddling in the region?

From orchestrating a so-called hybrid warfare of spreading disinformation, cyberattacks and sabotage, to paying off pro-Russian MEPs (Members of the European Parliament), Moscow’s controversial role came into sharp focus during the European parliament elections in June.

In response, Belgium and the Czech Republic coordinated investigations that led, among other actions, Prague to impose sanctions on an oligarch close to Mr. Putin for promoting a pro-Russia narrative via Voice of Europe website, which has since been taken down.

While a German MP from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is under a probe for receiving money to pro-Russia campaign, the Belgian government in April passed legislation to criminalise foreign interference in the political process.

In Moldova, the fragile post-Soviet republic, Moscow is accused of plotting to destabilise the pro-EU government, and interference in President Maia Sandu’s re-election and the referendum on EU accession in October.

What next?

While a re-run of the presidential contest is expected next year, the Mayor of Bucharest has thrown his hat in the ring. The ultra-nationalist Mr. Georgescu has vowed to challenge the decision in the Supreme Court. Romanian tax authorities have launched financial investigations against the social influencers behind Georgescu’s campaign, some of whom have since fled the country.