French Prime Minister Michel Barnier arrives to deliver a speech during a debate on two motions of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, on December 4, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters
France’s current crisis is the second in only six months when French president Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in July to reiterate his government’s strength. However, the move backfired. Ensemble, the alliance that his party headed, won fewer seats than the previous election. The two other main alliances – left alliance New Popular Front and right alliance National Rally – increased their seat tally, with the NPF winning the most seats.
This resulted in a hung parliament, where no party wins a majority of 289 or more seats in the 577-seat Assembly.
Hung Parliament
The results cast uncertainty about the country’s political future. Credit rating agency S&P said in a post-election note that it anticipated a “struggle to implement meaningful policy measures” and “a persistent risk of a vote of no-confidence”, according to Reuters. A hung parliament makes it harder to pass legislation, since decisions have to pass through a broader consensus.
Mr. Macron’s immediate concern after the election was the selection of a Prime Ministerial candidate. In the case of no majority party, this process becomes more complicated.
Selecting the Prime Minister
Since no party won a majority, Mr. Macron had to find a candidate who can withstand no-confidence motions in the future by garnering enough support. After negotiations across the board with both left and right parties, Mr. Macron appointed Michel Barnier, a moderate right-wing politician, as Prime Minister with tentative support from National Rally amidst protest from the NFP alliance. It accused Mr. Macron of “stealing” the elections by ignoring the “will of the people.” ‘
However, even within the left alliance, it was difficult to arrive at a consensus candidate. The transition took more than a month, the longest in several decades.
The process begins again, with Macron having to build support a second time from different parties.
France’s finances
The country’s bleak finances are at the centre of what triggered the no-confidence motion. One economic indicator is budget deficits, which have been over the European Union’s limit of 3% of GDP ever since the pandemic. The EU said in a Council Decision note in July that France’s deficit was excessive because projections showed it was not temporary, and it was not the result of “an unusual event nor from a severe economic downturn” like the pandemic.
Besides fiscal deficit, public debt (as % of GDP) is another measure that overshoots the EU target of 60%.
In this context, Mr. Barnier proposed a budget that would cut €60 billion in spending and increase taxes in a bid to tackle the country’s deficit problem. National Rally leader Le Pen had warned in November that she would oppose any budget that did not address cost-of-living concerns. Increasing tax burden on households, entrepreneurs or pensioners was also opposed. Notably, toppling the government would help her evade looming prosecution for embezzling EU funds.
Moreover, Mr. Barnier pushed the budget without taking it through a parliamentary vote after he could not win the support of National Rally lawmakers. In response, the party’s leader Marine Le Pen voted in support of the no-confidence motion moved by the left parties.
Now that MR. Barnier is set to resign, provisions from this year’s budget will apply next year until a new budget is formulated. However, the timeline for that remains murky in the aftermath of Mr. Barnier’s ouster.
(With inputs from AP and Reuters)
Published – December 06, 2024 02:49 pm IST
