On the streets of Tehran, a small crowd celebrated Iran’s missile attack on Israel while others are worried about the consequences of the Islamic Republic’s boldest move yet in a year of escalating Middle East conflict.
Local media carried footage of what Iran said were 200 missiles as they were fired towards Israel on Tuesday (October 1, 2024) evening, while state television played upbeat music over the images and showed crowds of a few hundred people celebrating the attacks in the capital and other cities across the country.
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They carried Iranian, Palestinian and Lebanese flags, as well as the flag of Iran-allied Hezbollah, alongside portraits of its chief Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli air strike last week, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated in Tehran in July.
The crowd chanted slogans of “Down with America” and “Down with Israel”, while some set fire to Israeli flags.
At a gathering in central Tehran on Wednesday, 22-year-old university student Fatemeh Marzban said she felt “satisfied” with Iran’s retaliation to a series of Israeli blows.
“Last night’s operation made many people on the resistance front happy,” Marzban said, as she thanked Iran’s military for the attack.
But Israel’s vow to avenge the missile attacks, backed by similar threats from the United States, has unsettled some people who fear the country stumbling into a full-blown war through tit-for-tat reactions.
“I am really worried because if Israel wants to take retaliatory measures, it will lead to an expansion of the war,” said Mansour Firouzabadi, a 45-year-old nurse in Tehran. “Everyone is worried about it.”
‘Bolder move’
Analysts see the Iranian missile strike as a consequence of a string of setbacks suffered by Tehran and its strategy of building up allies across the region in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and the Palestinian territories.
Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah chief Nasrallah was killed alongside Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank, said Iran took “a calculated risk in April” when it fired missiles and drones at Israel, most of which were intercepted, in its first ever direct attack.
The barrage was ordered after an Israeli air strike on Iran’s consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus which killed two Iranian generals.
“Now, with an even bolder move [on Tuesday], the regime’s actions reflect the deepening challenges it faces as its most critical partners have been weakened on multiple fronts,” Vaez said.
“Failing to respond might have further eroded its credibility with these allies, giving the impression that Tehran was content to remain passive”, he said.
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is due to deliver a rare speech at Friday (October 4, 2024) prayers this week, according to local media, during which he is widely expected to set the tone for the way forward.
The last time Mr. Khamenei led Friday prayers was after Iran launched ballistic missiles on air bases of US forces in Iraq following the 2020 killing of revered Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike near the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.
Speaking at a gathering of Iranian students on Wednesday (October 2, 2024), Mr. Khamenei said he was still in mourning for Nasrallah and that his death was “not a small matter.”
‘Far from over’
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran had refrained from responding to Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran during his inauguration in July, fearing that it could derail US-backed efforts for a ceasefire in the Gaza war.
But the promises from the United States and its allies of a “ceasefire in exchange for Iran’s non-reaction to Haniyeh’s killing were completely false,” he said on Sunday.
Israel’s military campaign continues there even as it steps up its war with Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
Following Tuesday’s attack by Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Tehran “made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it,” while the United States warned of “severe consequences”.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett called on Wednesday for a decisive strike to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps meanwhile threatened a “crushing attack” if Israel responded, and warned against any direct military intervention in support of Israel.
Vaez from the International Crisis Group says while Tehran has signalled “the chapter is closed … the reality is far from that.”
“The final word on this conflict lies, not with Iran, but with Israel and the United States,” he said.
“And if the latest developments in Gaza, Lebanon, and even Yemen’s Huthi movements are any indication, this confrontation is far from over.”
Published – October 03, 2024 08:15 am IST
