Pokrovsk: The Russians are coming

The Russians turned to Pokrovsk, the eastern Ukrainian city with a pre-war population of about 70,000, after they captured Avdiivka in February this year. Pokrovsk is part of Donetsk, one of the four Ukrainian oblasts which Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in 2022 (Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are the others). Since February, Russian troops have slowly advanced towards Pokrovsk, building pressure on Ukraine’s defensive lines. Now, with the Russians a few kilometres away, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the situation is “difficult”.

The city is home to a key railway station, built in the 19th century, and is located at the intersection of several vital roads that connect central Ukraine with the east. Pokrovsk grew around the railway station and emerged as a producer of coking coal, a lifeline of Ukraine’s pre-war economy, and a vital logistical hub.

During the Second World war, the city saw some of the fiercest battles. The Germans, who took the city in October 1941, forcibly moved many residents to Nazi labour camps elsewhere in Europe. Pokrovsk also witnessed the massacre of local Jewish people by the Nazis. The city was liberated in September 1943 by the Soviet Red Army.

In 2014, after Russia-backed rebels in Ukraine’s east captured parts of Donetsk, including Donetsk city, the administrative capital of the province, Pokrovsk’s profile grew in the Ukraine-controlled parts of the province. After the Russians took Bakhmut last year and Avdiivka earlier this year, their focus shifted towards two strategically important cities in Donetsk — Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, a hilltop town.

The Russians took parts of Chasiv Yar in July after months of complex and costly operations, and they kept pounding the city and disrupting Ukraine’s supplies using drones and artillery. But the axis where they made swift advances in recent weeks was towards Pokrovsk.

In the first week of August, however, Ukraine did something unexpected. Its troops carried out a daunting cross-border attack, capturing territories in Russia’s Kursk region. The incursion was a setback to Mr. Putin as it was the first major cross-border attack into mainland Russia since the Second World War. And it was a morale booster for Ukraine’s badly battered troops. The territories Ukrainian troops captured also provide a buffer zone for Kyiv between Russia and its border regions. And, if the troops manage to hold on to the territory, it’s an additional bargaining chip for Ukraine’s leadership in future talks with Russia — whenever that happens. Ukraine had a more pressing objective — to divert Russian troops from their campaign for Pokrovsk. The tactical thinking behind the Kursk incursion was that if the Russians are forced to relocate their troops from the Pokrovsk axis to Kursk, Russia’s advance in the east would be slowed down. But what happened was exactly the opposite.

Territorial gains

Russia did actually reinforce its Kursk defence, which seemed to have halted Ukraine’s advance in the region. But instead of pulling troops from the Pokrovsk axis, Russia doubled down on the offensive. On the other side, Ukraine’s decision to move some of its well-trained forces to Kursk seemed to have weakened the already crumbling defences in the east. As a result, Russia made lightning advances towards Pokrovsk in August. This forced Ukraine to redeploy some of its troops back to the defence of Pokrovsk. But Russian troops are moving from the north and south, which some military analysts say is an attempt to envelop the city.

If the Russians take Pokrovsk, that would seriously affect Ukraine’s resupply lines in the east. The defence of other strategic towns, including Chasiv Yar, will further be in peril. This would mean that Russia would be a step closer towards meeting one of Mr. Putin’s military objectives — taking full control of the Donbas region. It will also bring the Russians close to Ukraine’s deep rear.

But Ukrainians say they are ready to dig in and hurt the Russians as much as possible before they take the city. Ukraine is also hitting deep inside Russia using drones. And they are seeking permission from the U.S. to hit Russia using western long-range missiles. Outnumbered, outgunned and faced with back-to-back setbacks on the battlefield, Ukraine seeks to keep up the pressure on the Russians through long-range attacks with NATO’s help.