S. Jaishankar
| Photo Credit: ANI
Ahead of his visit to Washington, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said that the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which he will attend, could have “profound consequences for the global order”, spelling out some of the challenges and opportunities India could face over the next four years.
“Today, we may well be on the cusp of a new era,” Mr. Jaishankar said at a lecture in Mumbai on Saturday. “One where the United States departs from an established tradition of foreign policy and focuses on its own interests, rather than in shaping the world itself… Where the focus is more on the compulsions of competition rather than on observance of regimes,” he said, indicating that the incoming Trump administration would pose the biggest challenge globally to the prevailing rules-based order, which could affect India on trade and immigration issues in particular.
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As a result, Mr. Jaishankar’s five-point agenda during the Washington trip, his third visit to the U.S. in the past six months, will be to set the course for an intense engagement with the Trump administration, beginning with an early meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Trump. That could come as early as next month, as Mr. Modi will travel to Paris for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit at the Grand Palais, where Mr. Trump has been invited, or subsequently on a visit by Mr. Modi to the U.S. in the next few months. During the first Trump term in 2017, Mr. Modi had visited Washington and met with him within a few months of his inauguration.
The next agenda point for Mr. Jaishankar will be to set a date for the Quad summit in India later this year. “The Quad Foreign Ministers (Australia, India, Japan) are expected to be in Washington, D.C. for the inaugural ceremony of President Trump,” spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs Randhir Jaiswal announced on Friday. A formal Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting can only be held once the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, that has scheduled its next meeting on Monday, confirms Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio’s appointment, but Mr. Jaishankar is expected to discuss dates for the Quad summit with his counterparts. On Saturday, U.S.-based The Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Trump had told advisors that he wanted to travel to China early in his tenure, and was also considering a visit to India. Ahead of such a visit, all eyes will be on who Mr. Trump appoints as his Ambassador to India, as Eric Garcetti, a political appointee during the Biden administration, will step down on Tuesday.
In contrast to his strong rhetoric against China during his campaign, and his nomination of a number of China-hawks to his Cabinet, Mr. Trump has made a number of overtures to Chinese President Xi Jinping in recent weeks, including inviting him to the inauguration, and speaking to him over the telephone on Friday in what he called a “very good” call for China and the U.S. “It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately,” Mr. Trump announced on social media. “President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!” he added, and the visit to Washington by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng for the inauguration, will also be watched for talks on Mr. Trump’s plans to impose high tariffs on China. Mr. Trump’s threats of “reciprocal” duties on Indian products will also be tested in the next few weeks.
In addition, Mr. Trump’s plans to begin his tenure with a series of ‘Executive Orders’, including ordering mass deportations and raids on “day one” as outlooked by his ‘border Czar’ Tom Homan, will be watched closely during Mr. Jaishankar’s visit. According to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report released in December, there are about 17,940 Indian nationals out of a total of 1.4 million on the “final removal orders” list, and 2,647 Indians are amongst those immigrants already in detention centres, making them the fourth-largest group by nationality, following Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala.
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Finally, Mr. Jaishankar’s delegation’s meetings with Trump advisors, including billionaire Elon Musk, will be watched for announcements on their engagement with India. Mr. Musk, who has been negotiating with the Indian government for tax waivers for electric vehicle plants for his company Tesla, as well as on regulations dealing with SpaceX and Starlink and social media platform X, cancelled a much-anticipated visit to India in April 2024. Meeting a group of Indian business leaders led by the U.K.-based India Global Forum (IGF) in Texas on Friday, Mr. Musk “expressed optimism about the future of US-India relations, advocating for lower trade barriers to increase commerce between the two nations”, a statement by the IGF said.
Published – January 19, 2025 11:14 am IST
