The world view of many countries, especially the US has definitely changed with this week’s election results. Donald Trump, US’s 45th President will now also be its 47th President come January. We will discuss the broad shifts we expect, and how India will be affected by them.
But first, Donald Trump led the Republican Party to one of its best ever results in House, Senate and a large majority of Governors.
This means 3 things for the US:
The Trump administration will have an easier time pushing through laws it wants.
Trump will have less trouble passing a budget.
And Trump will be able to choose more judges in his tenure- which has perhaps the most lasting legacy.
In terms of US foreign policy, here are 6 things he is expected to do:
The most immediate impact will be felt by Ukraine, as Trump does not intend to increase US defence funding, and unlike Biden, he will engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin- Putin hailed Trump as a courageous man for his response to the assassination attack, said he is ready for talks.
The second place he will be watched is for the Israel war in Gaza and Lebanon, and while he has fully supported Netanyahu, has said he will seek an end to the war there. But will get tougher on Iran.
He is likely to turn America inward on manufacturing, more protectionism and jobs for Americans, as well as tougher strictures on immigration, both legal and illegal.
He is expected to get tough with China on trade, has promised 60% tariffs, and this could wreck China’s growth, but also increase inflation across the board.
However, he may not put as much US resources into Indo-Pacific strategies like the Quad, Quad plus, AUKUS etc, and demur from military confrontation with China.
He will probably change US commitments to climate change transitions, pushing for fossil fuels, what he calls liquid gold- said drill baby drill was his motto.
What does this mean for India and its neighbourhood? Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to call and congratulate him, and they recalled their times together during his first tenure, with 2 public rallies in Houston and Gandhinagar, and promised to work together. Trump is expected to return to India in 2025 for the Quad summit, but they could meet earlier.
The positives for the government:
Relief on Russia, and a possibly larger role for Modi in peacemaking, if Trump is able to force Ukraine to the table for a ceasefire.
Trump’s intervention in West Asia could help revive the IMEEC.
Less US pressure on democracy, minority rights, press freedoms
More muted comments on the Pannun-Nijjar issue, and given Trump’s tensions with Trudeau, less worry that India-Canada ties could affect India-US ties.
More push on trade, technology transfer, access to US military hardware.
In South Asia, New Delhi is likely to see a greater alignment with Washington, as Trump is expected to take a tough line on the interim regime in Bangladesh and Professor Muhammad Yunus, and not take too much interest in Pakistan, post-US pullout from Afghanistan.
What then are the negatives New Delhi should watch out for:
Trump’s trade policies will clash with the Make in India project, his tough rhetoric on tariffs will be a problem. Remember he withdrew India’s GSP status in Trump 1.0, and will push for a Free Trade Agreement on America’s terms. And his ringing praise for Elon Musk means he will push for India to give tariff concessions for Tesla’s EV project in India.
More transactional – only both bilateral cooperation and strategic ties, Trump will look for a quid pro-quo, will want more Indian investment in the US and more Indian deals like his push for Petronet to invest $2.5 bn in US company Driftwood for LNG.
On the Indo-Pacific, Trump 2.0 will be more exacting of its expectations from India on the counter to China- esp in the Indian Ocean.
Trump’s style of public messaging, twitter diplomacy and revealing details of private conversations with leaders has upset New Delhi and embarrassed PM Modi more than once, and this will be a worry.
Trump’s tough talk on immigration will affect thousands of Indians, including those already working in the US.
Trump will use sanctions to enforce his policies- as he did in making India cancel oil imports from Iran, so expect strong-arm tactics.
Worldview Take:
India must brace for impact, as in his hard fought for second term, Donald Trump will hit the floor running with his top agenda items on trade, tariffs and immigration. It is important not to conflate his positivity for India and personal ties with PM Modi with his geopolitical calculus. While taking advantage of Trump’s tenure to further Indian interests, New Delhi must keep its eye on the long term benefits of India-US ties, which will outlast the next four years of Trump’s tenure.
Reading recommendations:
War by Bob Woodward
At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House by H. R. McMaster, NSA to Trump
Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love by Mike Pompeo, SecState to Trump
Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine by David Petraeus
Editing: Shibu Narayan and Sabika Syed
Published – November 08, 2024 09:37 pm IST
