Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Suburban Collection Showplace on October 26, 2024 in Novi, Michigan. Photo: Getty Images via AFP
The story so far:
Around 24.4 crore people are eligible to vote for the U.S. presidential election slated for November 5. In 2020, two-thirds of the eligible voters voted. The next President of the U.S. will be decided less by these national numbers than by a few thousand voters in some key places, which are called battleground or swing States, thanks to the unique features of the country’s electoral system.
What transpired in the last two elections?
The last two elections of 2016 and 2020 demonstrated the outsize impact of the swing factor in several States, even as the country became more polarised. In 2020, President Joe Biden had a national lead of around 70 lakh votes over Donald Trump, but what mattered more were the small margins with which he won key States. Of around 67 lakh votes cast in Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden led over Mr. Trump by 81,660; in Michigan, he had 1.54 lakh more, of the total 54 lakh polled; in Wisconsin, Mr. Biden led by just 20,682 votes in a total of more than 32 lakh votes.
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In 2016, Mr. Trump had trailed his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton by two percentage points, which was in excess of 20 lakh votes, but he could still emerge as the winner because he won key swing States. For instance, he won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes of the total 61.7 lakh votes polled; Wisconsin by 22,748 of the 30 lakh votes; and Michigan, by 10,704 of the 48 lakh votes polled.
How is the winner chosen?
The winner of the U.S. presidential contest is selected not by a majority of national popular votes, but by a majority in the electoral college of 538, which is 270. Members of the electoral college are apportioned between the States. Most U.S. States have a “winner-takes-it-all” system that allots all electors to the candidate who gets more popular votes. So, whether a candidate has one or one million votes more than their opponent in California, for instance, all 54 electoral college votes of the State, will be awarded to him or her.
Similarly, all 19 electoral college votes of Pennsylvania will be awarded to the winner of the popular votes within that State, regardless of the margin. This system could create the anomaly of a candidate winning the election, without winning more popular votes than the opponent, nationally. That is also why the main opponents this time, Mr. Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, are trying to turn the battleground States in their favour in the last lap of campaigning ahead of election day.
Which are the key States that will play a role in picking the winner?
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina are the battleground States of 2024; and the contest between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris is a dead heat, going by all opinion polls. The average polling error for more than five decades in the U.S. is 3.4%. In all the seven swing States, in nearly all the polls, the leading candidate has a lead well within this margin. Like the last two elections, the margins could be very narrow and these States will decide who will be the President for the next four years. It is also possible that most of these States could swing to either side, as it happened in the last two elections, rather than being evenly divided between the two.
Even a minor swing among significant voting blocs in these States could turn the tide either way. Both candidates are trying to tailor their messages, particularly targeting these States. For instance, Latinos make up nearly a quarter of Arizona’s voters. That possibly explains Mr. Trump’s recent attempts to portray his opponent as being disrespectful of the Catholic church. In Georgia, Black votes count considerably, and Mr. Trump has been trying to mobilise them behind his anti-immigration politics. Latest polling figures show Mr. Trump gaining more ground among Latinos and Blacks. Michigan, a State that turned Republican in 2016 and Democrat in 2020, has around two lakh Muslim voters. Democrats, and Ms. Harris, face a crisis of credibility among them, against the backdrop of the conflict in West Asia. They may not vote for Mr. Trump but could turn indifferent towards Ms. Harris. Mr. Trump had won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, but Ms. Harris is making some new inroads, according to polls.
In the last stretch, there will be further concentration of firepower by both sides on the small numbers that count as big in the elections. Catching the swing voters in these States is what both candidates are focussing on now.
Published – October 27, 2024 04:35 am IST
