Two weeks after we reported on PM Modi’s mission to Kyiv, the NSA and EAM were travelling – and the flurry of activity has sparked speculation about an Indian role in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict- is it likely? Possibly effective or even feasible given the latest escalation in the war. Let’s talk about that quickly:
In the past few weeks:
-Ukraine attacked the Russian oblast of Kursk, marking the first time since Russia’s invasion in 2022 that it is holding Russian territory
-Russia retaliated by firing 200 missiles and drones at Ukraine
-Ukraine has now demanded, and is expected to receive clearance from the US, UK and other NATO members to use their military hardware and missiles for long range strikes on Russia
-Putin has said the clearance would be a declaration of war between Russia and NATO
Amidst these war clouds gathering- here is why PM Modi’s travel has set off the speculation India is seeking a mediatory role
-In June he met Ukraine President Zelenskyy at the G-7 meet, but India disassociated from the Swiss Peace conference on Ukraine
-In July he travelled to Moscow to meet President Putin
-In August he travelled to Kyiv to meet Zelenskyy again
-This week, NSA Ajit Doval travelled to St Petersburg to personally brief President Putin on the sidelines of a BRICS summit
-External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar travelled to Saudi Arabia, Germany and Switzerland
-Later in September Modi will head to New York for UN meetings and Wilmington for the Quad Summit- he may also meet Zelenskyy again
-And in October Modi will go back to Russia for the BRICS summit, and a bilateral meeting with Putin on October 22
-Right after that he will host German Chancellor Scholz in India
What are India’s options?
1. As one of a handful of countries whose leader has travelled to both capitals- India says it is happy to convey messages between Putin and Zelenskyy, as it has done over the Turkish Grain initiative and nuclear safety issues. In an interview to The Hindu, the Ukrainian Ambassador said India can play a bigger role
2. The next option would be for India to have a peace proposal. At present there is a 10-point proposal by Zelenskyy that Russia has rejected and a Putin proposal that Zelenskyy has rejected. There is a 6-point Brazil China proposal that calls for a Russia-Ukraine summit, that Zelenskyy has rejected- so can an Indian proposal find favour? Thus far, Jaishankar says India has 4 principles:
-This is not the time for war
-There is no solution on the battlefield- dialogue and diplomacy is a must
-Russia must be at the table
India is concerned about the consequences of the war, and ready to support peace efforts- remember in 2022, Jaishankar had said Europe’s problems aren’t the world’s problems.
Another option is for India to actively mediate, or to host the next peace Summit in India, that would include both Putin and Zelenskyy- this week the German Chancellor said that Russia should be part of the next round of peace talks. However, the government has so far not indicated that it plans to do so unless it is asked to by both parties to the war.
What are the problems for an Indian Peace effort?
1. India is a late entrant to the peace process- and there are already a number of other dialogue tracks at present – so question would be whether India would go it alone or join another
2. India did not sign on to the Burgenstock peace declaration in Switzerland, and therefore may be awkward to host the next summit
3. Instead of peace- the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to be escalating at present- and if it broadens into a Russia-NATO war, will become more difficult to de-escalate or effect a ceasefire.
4. India is not seen as a neutral party, given that it has much closer bilateral ties with Russia
5. India has in more recent years been wary of mediation, as it has itself rejected mediation efforts on Kashmir.
A slice of history however shows Indian efforts in the past:
-In 1947 India was a member of The United Nations Temporary Commission on Korea (UNTCOK)
-In 1955 PM Nehru mediated between USSR and Austria for the withdrawal of Soviet troops and is credited for persuading Austria to declare neutrality
-In 1956 India mediated in the Korean crisis – engaging the US, China and USSR
-India was the Co-Chairman of the International Commission for Supervision and Control in the war in Vietnam in the 1950s and 60s
-In 1979, after China invaded Vietnam, FM Vajpayee called off his China visit, and actively supported Vietnam
-On other invasions by Soviet Union and then Russia- into Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan- India abstained on UN resolutions but counselled restraint
-When it came to US invasions of Iraq, Afghanistan and NATO intervention in Libya, India has been critical
WV Take: India’s decision to consider entering the peacemakers fray on the Russia-Ukraine conflict would laudable albeit a bit late- and if New Delhi does decide to mediate it will require heavy lifting by PM Modi and his diplomats, in terms of travelling to both capitals and conveying some very sharp messages between them, and a considerable use of resources that are perhaps needed elsewhere and within India. The task is set to get more complex with the US and UK threatening to support Ukrainian airstrikes on Russia, and Russia’s pushback to NATO countries, and India will have to step lightly to avoid setting off any geopolitical minefields.
WV Reading Recommendations:
1. Perilous Interventions: The Security Council and the Politics of Chaos by Hardeep Singh Puri
2. Russia- Ukraine War: The Conflict and Its Global Impact by Ajay Singh
3. New Cold Wars: China’s rise, Russia’s invasion, and America’s struggle to defend the West by David Sanger
4. Punishing Putin : Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia by Stephanie Baker- out this Month
6. Understanding International Conflict and Mediation Edited by Charity Butcher and Maia Carter Hallward
7. A Life in Diplomacy by Maharajakrishna Rasgotra
Presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production:Gayatri Menon, Shibu Narayan
Published – September 13, 2024 08:11 pm IST
