There were many firsts to PM Modi’s two day visit to Russia, his first since the invasion of Ukraine, and his first destination for a bilateral summit in his 3rd tenure in office, the first time they held the Annual Summit since 2021, and the first time an Indian leader was awarded Russia’s . While officials billed it as a purely bilateral visit, it won attention internationally, and censure from western capitals
To start, let’s just tell you what agreements were announced
1. .Putin accepted Modi’s request to issue military discharges for all Indian’s misled into becoming military recruits on the Russian warfront. The Hindu had first reported on the plight of Indian soldiers
2. A 81-point joint statement that included convergent positions on Ukraine and Gaza
3. Joint Vision Statement on the development of strategic areas of Russia-India economic cooperation for the period up to 2030- and $100 billion target for trade by 2030
4. An agreement to facilitate trade and investment in Russia’s Far East, which includes the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor
5. India will open 2 new consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg
I also spoke to several Indian businessmen on how the PM’s visit will help resolve their big issues of trade, payments, banking and sanctions.
So why were western countries , mainly US and Ukraine upset by the visit
1. The Modi-Putin meeting just hours after Russia rained 40plus missiles on Ukraine, including on a children’s hospital drew this tweet from Ukraine President Zelenskyy
2. Formal talks came on a day Washington began a special NATO summit with western allies and Zelenskyy, and the Modi visit spiked its plans to show Putin had been isolated by their solidarity
3. PM Modi spoke about the need for peace, decried civilian losses, but did not criticise Mr. Putin for the invasion of Ukraine
4. The India Russia Joint Statement issued spoke of the conflict “around Ukraine”, not in Ukraine, accepting Russian territorial claims
5. The US State Department said it had raised concerns with New Delhi on its ties with Russia, and US Ambassador Eric Garcetti, in particularly blunt comments this week, said that in conflict, “theres no such thing as Strategic Autonomy”
What then is India’s Message from Moscow
1. Bilateral ties, that have been flagging for some years, appear to have been set back on track with the Modi-Putin meeting. It is significant the PM Modi made the visit to Moscow for the talks, and spent 8-9 hours with President Putin rather than have meetings at the SCO or on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan.
2. Economic issues and opportunities arising from the Ukraine conflict, whether it is on payment mechanisms to avoid sanctions, new connectivity routes or on more predictable discounted oil supplies are a major priority
3. India is concerned about Russia-China ties coming closer- but while the West may want China to pull away from Russia, India wants Russia to feel less dependent on China
4. India will continue to walk its own road on the Ukraine conflict- backing peace, but not criticizing Russia or joining the western coalition in any manner
5. India may not be seeking a role in mediation in the conflict, but it remains one of the few countries, like Hungary, Turkey etc that can speak with both Putin and Zelenskyy and the West
WV Take: The resumption of India-Russia annual summits after three years is an important inflexion point- and along with bilateral agreements, and the personal Modi-Putin rapport may send the message that New Delhi now believes the conflict in Ukraine has turned an irreversible corner. For Moscow, the big message is that Russia is not isolated, and Putin’s visits to Beijing, Hanoi and Pyongyang as well as visits by the Hungarian PM reinforce that while the western coalition is fiercely with Ukraine, Russia believes it has the global majority. The most important outcome is to watch is if and how this changes the Delhi-Washington relationship, with elections and more turbulence expected.
Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan
