Prime Minister Narendra Modi (File).
New Delhi:
The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win a third consecutive term – but fall well short of its ‘abki baar, 400 paar‘ target – in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, according to NDTV’s poll of opinion polls.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to win 365 of the 543 contested seats, and the Congress-led INDIA could get 122, with the remaining 56 going to parties not allied with either side.
The predicted final result may not be a surprise, given the NDA – its charge led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third consecutive time – is already seen by many as the clear winner, but the numbers suggest a narrowing of the gap between the ruling party and the opposition since 2019.
Health Warning: Opinion polls often get it wrong.
The 365 seats the NDA is expected to win this year represents a 3.4 per cent increase over its 2019 result; it won 353 seats (the BJP got 303) and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance) got 90.
The NDA’s 2019 score was five per cent up from the 336 it won in the 2014 election.
The BJP’s primary rival – the UPA in 2014 and 2019 and INDIA in 2024 – went from 60 in 2014 to 90 in 2019, an increase of 50 per cent. In this election INDIA’s expected return of 122 is a 35 per cent jump.
The data from the poll of opinion polls is drawn from nine polls, including three conducted by ABP-C Voter on December 25, March 12, and April 16. In these three, the NDA’s expected score jumps from 295-335 to 366 and settles at 373, while INDIA goes from 163 down to 156 and then 155.
The biggest predicted returns for the BJP-led alliance comes from Times-ETG, which gives it between 358 and 398 seats, and gives INDIA 110-130. The non-aligned parties are given 64-68 seats here.
India TV-CNX, Zee News-Matrize, and Times-Matrize all give the NDA over 350 seats each, and give INDIA less than 100 seats. The exception is Times Matrize, which gives the bloc 104 seats.
The closest prediction is India Today-C Voter; a sample of nearly 36,000 voters polled on February 8 indicates a return of 335 for the NDA, 166 for the INDIA, and 42 for other opposition parties.
NDA Clean Sweep In 8 States, UTs
The NDA is predicted to ride to victory on the back of clean sweeps in eight states and union territories, including national capital Delhi, Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat, and Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast, where the BJP has flexed its nationalist muscles in the wake of Chinese aggression.
The NDA is also tipped to sweep Rajasthan – building on last year’s Assembly election win – Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu.
Together, these states and UTs send 72 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Winning these, if that is what happens, will give the BJP a significant edge in the final tally, particularly since the opinion polls suggest, as is widely expected, the saffron party will once again fail to impress in South India.
In the 2019 election the BJP swept Delhi (seven seats), Gujarat (26), Arunachal Pradesh (two), Chandigarh (one), Uttarakhand (five), Himachal Pradesh (four), and Daman and Diu (one).
The party also claimed 24 of Rajasthan’s 25 seats; the 25th went to an ally.
BJP To Dominate Hindi Heartland
As expected, the BJP and allies will likely thump rivals in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Of the 149 seats in play here, the NDA could win a massive 137. That return, if true, will almost match its 2019 score; it won 39 of Bihar’s 40 seats, 74 of UP’s 80 and 28 of Madhya Pradesh’s 29.
In Bihar, where the opposition suffered a huge setback this year after Chief Minister Nitish Kumar – one of the bloc’s founders – returned his Janata Dal (United) to the NDA, INDIA may win only five.
In UP – where the 80 Lok Sabha seats are by far the highest of any state – INDIA must prepare for a rout, the opinion polls indicate. And in Madhya Pradesh the Congress will win just one seat.
Bengal, Maharashtra Face-Offs
The battle between the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in Maharashtra, and the BJP’s high-tension clash with the Trinamool in Bengal, will likely end with an advantage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party. The Mahayuti could dominate Maharashtra – winning 30 of its 48 seats – and, in Bengal, maintain, if not gain, ground gained five years ago.
READ | Maharashtra Opposition Seat Pact Final, Team Thackeray Gets 21 Seats
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s party will likely be the majority winner in Bengal, with 22 of its 42 seats expected. The BJP won 18 in the last poll and is predicted to win 19 this time. The Congress-led INDIA bloc, which counts Ms Banerjee as an on-paper ally, might struggle and get only one seat.
BJP’s ‘Mission South’
The saffron party has historically fared poorly in the southern states – particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In 2019 it failed to win a seat in either, with vote shares of 3.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent.
That could change this year, with two seats expected in the former, to which the Prime Minister has made a staggering 10 visits in the past eight weeks. The BJP here is contesting without its ally – the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of two main Dravidian parties in the state.
The big winner in Tamil Nadu is expected to be the INDIA bloc – led in the state by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) – with 33 seats. The AIADMK could get only four seats.
READ | Battleground Tamil Nadu: Sans Big Allies, Will ‘Modi Wave’ Work For BJP?
Elsewhere in the south, the BJP may gain a measure of revenge over the Congress in Karnataka, after it lost the last Assembly election there. The NDA is pegged for 23 of Karnataka’s 28 seats.
In Andhra Pradesh the ruling YSR Congress Party will likely retain its sway with 16 of the state’s 25 seats. This result could be an indicator of how the YSRCP will do in the simultaneous Assembly poll.
Finally, over in Telangana, a tight three-way battle between the BJP, the Congress, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) of former Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao could end with the Congress winning nine, the BJP four, and the BRS three. The 17th seat might go to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.
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