ASEAN’s top diplomats meet in shadow of U.S.-Iran conflict

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran ⁠are likely to cast a shadow over a diplomatic gathering in Southeast Asia this week, injecting additional uncertainty into a region grappling with maritime tensions with China and a faltering regional effort to end Myanmar’s civil war. Foreign ‌Ministers from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and major partners will gather in Manila against a backdrop of instability beyond the region since the U.S. ‌and Iran resumed open conflict, raising concerns about energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, as ‌well ⁠as inflation and global growth.

“We’re looking at several occasions where they can raise this ⁠very, very critical topic,” said Dominic Xavier Imperial, a spokesperson for the Philippines, the meeting host.

But Southeast Asia’s top diplomats meeting on Tuesday (July 21, 2026) face no shortage of challenges closer to home.

They will have an informal consultation on Myanmar’s conflict, as ​ASEAN’s peace initiative struggles to gain traction, ‌five years after it was launched following a military coup that plunged the country into a civil war that has killed an estimated 100,000 people.

Rubio takes aim at Beijing ahead of meeting

Likely to be discussed also are tensions in the South China Sea, for which ASEAN ‌and China are, after nearly 10 years, still trying to conclude a code of ​conduct to prevent disputes from escalating. Ahead of the gathering, U.S.-ally the Philippines accused China’s Coast Guard personnel of aggressively striking one of its navy personnel on the ⁠head with a baton near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on Monday. China’s Coast Guard called that “false”.

The U.S. State Department condemned what it described as China’s “dangerous and aggressive” actions, ‌in what it called “China’s troubling pattern of provocation against lawful Philippine maritime operations”. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will join the ASEAN-led meeting in the days ahead and could meet on the sidelines. Also attending will be India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Britain and the European Union, among others.

Without naming China, Mr. Rubio took a swipe at Beijing in an opinion piece published in Philippine newspapers upon his arrival in Manila on Tuesday, reaffirming U.S. commitment ‌to freedom of navigation, but warning such freedom was “by no means guaranteed”.

“If those waters fall under the control of ​a power willing to use commerce as a geopolitical weapon, both the United States and the ASEAN states would face dire new threats to their sovereignty, security and ⁠economic futures,” Mr. Rubio said in the piece.

Mr. Rubio reiterated a 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s sweeping sovereignty claims ⁠in the South China Sea was final and binding and said the U.S. would honour its obligations to the Philippines and other allies “as they confront new and coercive threats to ‌our shared interests.”

China does not recognise the arbitration ruling, which went in favour of the Philippines.

Separately, Australia on Tuesday (July 21, 2026) announced a further $6.7 million contribution to a drones package for the ​Philippine Coast Guard to boost its maritime surveillance capacity, which includes long-range and underwater drone capabilities and training.