Origins of COVID still unclear, but climate is driving new viral threats, says top scientist Soumya Swaminathan

Ms. Swaminathan, a former Director‑General of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and now chairperson of the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation, was asked whether COVID‑19 could have resulted from an “accidental” laboratory leak or from mutations driven by climate change.

While the origins of SARS‑CoV‑2 remain unresolved, she noted that climate change is indeed influencing viral mutations, citing the H1N1 influenza virus, whose cases have increasingly jumped from birds to mammals, with occasional human infections. The number of such spillover events is rising in the United States, and as the virus continues to mutate, the likelihood of human infections — and potential pandemics — increases. “There is a lot of research going on in this area,” she said.

Earlier, delivering the 13th Dr. Manohar V. N. Shirodkar Memorial Lecture, she emphasised the need for coordinated public policy changes and strong implementation to address the threats of air pollution, extreme heat and climate change — challenges that disproportionately affect poor and middle‑income countries such as India.

“We are already experiencing the health impacts of heat and air pollution. Thankfully, there are solutions. China has done it and so has London, by transitioning to renewable energy, improving public transport, strengthening waste management through segregation, diversifying agriculture, and promoting energy‑efficient buildings. There is no doubt that human activities are the main drivers,” she said.

Ms. Swaminathan warned that biodiversity loss continues largely unrecognised, with “a million species at risk of extinction” and unpredictable consequences for ecosystems and human health. The 1.5°C temperature limit has already been breached, and the world may be heading toward 2.5-3°C above pre‑industrial levels by the end of the century, she observed.

Extreme climate events — heatwaves, landslides, droughts, floods, and cyclones — have increased in frequency and intensity, causing internal and cross‑border migration. Diseases, too, have shown a rise, affecting life expectancy. “Mitigation and adaptation are both critical,” she stressed.

Climate change and COVID‑19, she said, share one important similarity: they do not respect borders. That is why collaboration, solidarity and the sharing of scientific knowledge — even among groups that may disagree politically — are essential for addressing global challenges, she concluded.