It’s festive season in Nepal. While primarily a Hindu festival, Dashain is widely observed by all Nepalis, as the long holiday offers a welcome break from work. It’s also a time for family reunions and merrymaking.
But this time, a sense of unease seems to hang in the autumn air.
Two days of youth-led protests earlier this month, on September 8 and 9, changed the face of politics and the sociopolitical structure of Nepal. Over 70 people were killed. As the second day of protests turned violent, state institutions were attacked and burned down, and politicians’ houses were torched.
An interim government has been in place since September 12, but many analysts are wary of its capacity to deliver.
Krishna Mulmi, a shopkeeper, makes it a point to ask almost all of his customers, who come from diverse backgrounds, how things will unfold in the coming days.
“Different people say different things, but none has said anything that inspires hope,” said Mr. Mulmi. “My shop may continue to operate, but that’s not the point. The issue is what is going to happen in this country.”
At a crossroads
The interim government is led by Sushila Karki, a 73-year-old firebrand former Chief Justice. She has inducted seven Ministers so far. The government has been mandated to hold elections on March 5, while carrying out day-to-day administrative operations, investigating the killings of 19 young protesters on September 8, and launching a criminal probe into the arson and attacks the next day.
Observers say there seems to be a kind of inertia in the Cabinet in its initial days.
C.K. Lal, a writer and analyst, says there is a complete loss of faith. “There are already doubts if this government will sustain. If it sustains, whether it can hold the elections,” Mr. Lal told The Hindu. “And even if elections happen, what kind of elections will that be, as political parties still appear to be non-committal.”
Nepal has been a democracy since 1990, after the king-ruled non-party Panchayat regime of 30 years was dismantled by the people’s protests, termed the First Jana Andolan. The Second Jana Andolan of 2005–06 bade farewell to the centuries-old monarchy. The 2015 Constitution formalised Nepal as a secular federal republic.
Yet, democracy continues to flounder in the Himalayan nation, wedged between India and China — the world’s two largest economies, one a democracy and the other a one-party regime.
The arson and attack on September 9 didn’t spare private businesses, with the government yet to launch an assessment of the losses. Economists, in informal conversations, say it may take weeks, if not months, to get a figure, but hazard a guess that the losses could be in the tens of billions.
“There’s uncertainty, and it’s fuelling unease,” said Mr. Lal. “We are in a situation where we know something did happen, but no one knows how it actually happened.”
Nepal’s youth-led protests were sparked by the erstwhile K.P. Sharma Oli government’s move to impose a sweeping ban on more than two dozen social media sites, including Facebook, X, and Instagram. The government claimed that these companies refused to comply with Nepal’s call to register themselves.
The protests, whose campaigners identified themselves as Gen Z, were, however, organised to demand an end to corruption and misgovernance. Gen Z campaigners last week told The Hindu they wanted peaceful protests but things got out of control quickly.
As days passed, several Gen Z groups have emerged, and there seems to be a glaring lack of coherence in their demands. This is likely to put the Karki government in an additional bind, say analysts.
“The government appears to be operating in a vacuum. While youth demands need to be identified and sorted, political parties have to be taken into confidence,” says Rajendra Dahal, a journalist and commentator. “How can elections happen if the actual players — the political parties — do not participate?”
Traditional political parties like the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), and CPN (Maoist Centre) are on the back foot. These three parties have been in power for decades, and all of them are largely perceived as corrupt. Chiefs of all these parties are over 70-year-old men. Calls for reforms and leadership change have been pushed back.
After being shaken by the recent protests, the debate for party reforms has begun, but it has yet to gain traction, also due to the festival holidays.
Will she, won’t she?
Political party leaders have gradually started to speak up. They have already objected to the dissolution of the House of Representatives by the Karki government.
Analysts say the interim administration must not forget that its main mandate is holding elections and handing over power to the elected government.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Karki called on all, including political parties, to enthusiastically participate in the elections. “I would like to urge political parties to take part in the elections and amend the Constitution constitutionally,” she said in her first address to the nation since becoming the Prime Minister two weeks ago.
“The interim government, solely formed to hold elections, has already started its work, and it will be committed to providing service delivery and minimising corruption.”
This is the first public call by the interim government to political parties to commit themselves to elections.
However, since the parties are on the defensive, analysts say a mechanism to launch constructive dialogue with them is a must.
According to Mr. Dahal, an interim government is not just an administrative unit, and since its main mandate is elections, it has to act politically.
“The Cabinet has to have at least one person who can hold dialogue with parties and their leaders so that confidence could be built for them to participate in elections,” he said. “But I am not seeing that happening, and that is a real cause for concern.”
While fear in the parties needs to be overcome, the electorate also needs to be assured of safety and security as the country heads towards elections.
Thousands of prisoners had fled from jails across the country during the two-day protests. According to officials at the Prison Management Department, more than 6,500 are still at large, while 7,300 prisoners and detainees have been recaptured.
“Inmates are on the loose, guns from security forces have been looted. And there is financial distress,” said Mr. Lal. “In such a situation, it’s natural for the general public to feel uneasy and uncertain.”
Largely an import-based country, Nepal’s economy has been in distress for decades. The unemployment rate is high among the youth, and remittance contributes to one-fourth of its GDP.
In the aftermath of the recent protests, whose demands were for the better, analysts say things suddenly appear to be upside down.
“It’s quite concerning that there is no faith in anyone,” said Mr. Lal. “There is no one to reassure the worried people.”
With 161 days to go for polls, Ms. Karki on Thursday did make a broader call for making the elections a success, but doubts remain among analysts and the public alike.
Mr. Mulmi, the shopkeeper wondered if elections will take place on time — and whether they would bring any real change for ordinary citizens.
