Aerial view of the Outeiro port at the Para river in Belem, Para State, Brazil. Brazil will host the UN climate conference COP30 in November in the Amazonian city of Belem. File
| Photo Credit: AFP
Ahead of the 30th edition of the climate talks scheduled in Belem, Brazil, in November, major emitters appear to be dithering on declaring updated climate goals. Only 29 out of 195 countries have so far submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). These are voluntary targets, updated every five years by countries to regulate fossil fuel emissions. So far, all countries that are signatory to the United Nations climate convention have submitted NDCs detailing emission targets upto 2030.
The European Union, a bloc of 27 member nations, and historically the group that has been a leader in advocating that countries undertake ambitious cuts to fossil fuel production, is yet to evolve consensus among its member countries on what their NDCs should be.
EU members are set to vote this week on two climate agreements. One of them is an internal, legally binding commitment to reduce emissions — relative to 1990 — by 90% by 2040, and be on the path to carbon neutrality by 2050. The other is to agree on a 2035 target, to time with the NDC requirements of COP30 (30th Conference of Parties).
The Hindu has learnt from multiple sources familiar with the EU’s climate negotiations that there was “disagreement” among its member countries that were yet to be ironed out, with some major EU member countries, including France and Germany, preferring that a vote on the matter be postponed. They indicated, however, that the EU would announce its updated NDC before COP30 commences on November 10. The EU has a rotating presidency with Denmark, currently in charge and looking to evolve consensus among members for an ambitious climate agreement.
The Russia-Ukraine war, the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement, the Trump tarrifs, the growing prominence of right-wing political parties, and increased spending on defence budgets has been skimming “attention away” from climate goals.
This year — 10 years after the Paris Agreement — with Andre Lago, COP President and veteran Brazilian diplomat, saying that this would be an “implementation” COP rather than stressing on a headline-grabbing cover text to signal forward movement on ambition, new coalitions on a leadership role appear to be forming.
While the U.S.’s Democratic Party-led administrations have historically been an ally to the European Union’s climate goals, the turned political climate in the U.S. has seen the EU look elsewhere for support.
This July, the EU, and China, the latter being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases to the EU’s fourth, released a joint statement on climate that the Paris Agreement was the “cornerstone of international climate cooperation,” and that they were “committed to…Submitting before COP30 their respective 2035 NDCs covering all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases and in alignment with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement”.
The 2015 Paris Agreement, which 195 countries have ratified, requires countries to submit updated NDCs every five years to show the steps undertaken by them to keep average temperatures from rising, “as far as possible”, above 1.5C by the end of the century, and certainly below 2C.
Countries were expected to submit their NDCs in February but have an official deadline of the September 30, or during the ongoing United Nations General Assembly session in New York.
This year, the updated NDCs of countries are expected to be a major theme at the COP in Brazil.
While China, along with India — the world’s third largest polluter — has consistently argued for its “right” to use fossil fuel for economic development, China’s profile as a supplier of critical minerals necessary in manufacturing batteries and photovoltaic cells meant that it could no longer “afford to be seen as not championing an accelerated shift away from fossil fuel”, a person familiar with the climate administration at the EU said.
The EU has said that it was on track and “closing in collectively” on a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over 1990 levels, as committed in the European Climate Law, and was reaching a share of at least 42.5% of renewable energy by 2030.
India too is yet to declare its updated NDC though it has said it is on track towards achieving it. This includes reducing its GDP emissions intensity by 45% over 1990 levels, ensuring half its electricity capacity is from non-fossil fuels, and creating a carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes by increasing forest cover.
Published – September 17, 2025 05:45 pm IST
