What next for French President Emmanuel Macron after Prime Minister’s ouster

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to appoint a new Prime Minister after parliament ousted Francois Bayrou, rather than opt for early elections let alone resign himself.

Mr. Bayrou is to submit his resignation on Tuesday (September 9, 2025) morning with Mr. Macron naming a successor in the coming days, the presidency said.

But with parliament voting by a large margin not to give its confidence to Mr. Bayrou and his government after just nine months in office, there is the risk that the next incumbent could face the same fate.

So who could the next Prime Minister be and could they cling to office until the end of Mr. Macron’s mandate in 2027?

Macron confidant?

A person close to Mr. Macron, asking not to be named, said the President’s personal inclination was to name a long-serving Cabinet Minister who he trusted like Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin or Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

“In the end he will stay within his comfort zone,” added an ex-minister.

Both Mr. Darmanin and Mr. Lecornu may be seen as too right wing to be palatable to the left, with a pact with the Socialist Party (PS) seen as a possible way out of the impasse.

A more realistic option could be Health Minister Catherine Vautrin who has been repeatedly cited as a possible candidate in the past.

Compromise candidate?

Another option could be a figure who is aligned with the left but not part of the Socialist Party and who could also be acceptable to Mr. Macron’s centrist bloc.

Such figures could include Raphael Glucksmann, who leads his own progressive left-wing movement, or Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Prime Minister and one-time member of the Socialist Party.

But also seen as a viable contender is Finance Minister Eric Lombard, an ex-banking boss but also a former Socialist Party member.

“The issue is no longer who he (Macron) wants to install in the Matignon (residence and office of the French premier) but who can maintain such a difficult balance,” said a source close to Macron, asking not to be named.

Cohabitation?

Mr. Macron could try his hand at “cohabitation” which in France is when a President tries to work with a Prime Minister from an opposing party.

The most obvious such option would be Socialist leader Olivier Faure who has made no secret of his interest in the position.

But he may also find his government at the mercy of the right, with no faction able to muster a majority in what is a hung parliament.

Analysts at the Eurasia Group risk analysis firm predicted Macron would appoint a new premier to seek a deal with the Socialists and enact a less ambitious budget.

“There is a 60% probability that the new PM will muddle through to a budget deal by the end of this year or by the early new year,” they said.

Elections?

There had been speculation that Mr. Macron could call snap legislative elections after Mr*. Bayrou’s exit but the French presidency has already made clear he will appoint a new premier.

Were the figure — who will be the seventh premier of Mr. Macron’s mandate — to fall, then the pressure would mount.

Calling the polls is “not an option but an obligation” for Mr. Macron, said French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen, whose party could make gains.

After Mr. Bayrou’s predecessor Michel Barnier was ousted in a no confidence vote in December, “if a third PM falls within a year, Mr. Macron will have little choice but to call a new legislative election”, said Eurasia Group.

Far-left former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon Monday called on Mr. Macron to “go as well himself”. But the President has vowed to serve his term out until it ends in 2027.